Miami (FL) vs. S. Florida Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2024

@Stuckey2

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Miami enters this matchup riding high after a dominant start, but we've seen this before. The Hurricanes opened last season with similar hype, only to falter when the competition stiffened, and history may repeat itself here. After a blowout win over Florida and a couple of easy victories against Ball State and Florida A&M, the Hurricanes look solid on both sides of the ball. However, their true mettle hasn't been tested, especially in their secondary. USF, with its potent passing game led by quarterback Byrum Brown, has the tools to exploit this. Miami's secondary, while athletic, hasn't faced a serious passing attack this year, and USF could present the first real challenge. Byrum Brown's dual-threat ability adds another wrinkle to this game. His rushing prowess gives the Bulls offense a solid floor, preventing Miami's aggressive pass rush from simply teeing off. USF has been improving steadily, and while their defense is still a work in progress, there have been encouraging signs, particularly with the influx of experienced transfers. The Bulls should be able to at least keep the Hurricanes honest, especially with the motivation that comes from playing a home game against a nationally ranked team. USF’s track record under head coach Alex Golesh shows they can rise to the occasion in these types of matchups, as evidenced by competitive outings against Power 5 teams like Alabama. Another factor working in USF's favor is the market's possible overvaluation of Miami. The Hurricanes' blowout win over Florida looks less impressive after Texas A&M's dismantling of the Gators, and Miami's failure to cover as a heavy favorite is a pattern under Mario Cristobal. His 8-16 ATS record as a 14-plus point favorite is a strong indication that the Hurricanes tend to play down to their competition in such scenarios. USF, playing in front of a raucous home crowd, will likely keep this one closer than expected, particularly with the emotion of a matchup against an in-state powerhouse. Furthermore, teams laying two or more touchdowns in their fourth game have historically struggled to cover, hitting less than 40% of the time. While Miami has the talent to overpower inferior opponents, USF's offensive firepower and an improving defense provide enough of a threat to keep this game competitive. The Bulls might not win outright, but getting 17 points or more in a high-energy home setting gives them significant value in this spot.

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