Abdul El-Sayed is still a 76¢ favorite in the Michigan Senate race on both Polymarket and Kalshi, down 2 points and 3 points on the boards, while Jocelyn Benson holds at 94¢ in the Michigan Governor race with polls open until 8 p.m. local time.
- El-Sayed, Rogers, Benson and James all have live Michigan Governor election and Senate contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, and both exchanges list a Governor-Senate combo market.
- The final El Sayed vs Rogers polls range from a 1-point race to an 11-point El-Sayed lead, while the closing Benson vs James polls have Benson ahead by 4 to 13 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94.1¢) | $106.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (6.6¢) | $1,515.15 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Michigan Governor Election and Michigan Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Michigan contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both contracts settle on the result of the November 3 general election. Polymarket's own labels read Safe D for the Governor race and Likely D for the Senate race, a notch firmer than the Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, while Inside Elections has the Senate race at Tilt Democratic.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. Treat them as approximations, since Libertarian, Green and U.S. Taxpayers nominees are also on the Governor ballot and the pairing ignores any minor-party candidates.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Polymarket has Benson at 94¢, a 94% implied chance, and no recent survey cited here has James in front.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 94¢ / NO 7¢, -1 pts)
Benson gave back 1 point on the board even though the New York Times/Siena survey, fielded October 23 to November 1, had her ahead of James 52% to 39% among likely voters.
The closer end of the Benson vs James polls is Emerson's October 31 to November 1 survey at 50% to 46%, which sits inside its 4.4-point margin of error, so a 94¢ price leans on the larger leads holding up.
John James (YES 7¢ / NO 94¢)
James, who carries Trump's endorsement, closed on a promise to audit state spending and cut the 4.25% income tax by a quarter in his first year as the first step toward phasing it out.
Benson spent Monday evening in Detroit with United Auto Workers members, and both campaigns have run on the cost of living. A James win would make him Michigan's first Black governor.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
El-Sayed gave back 2 points to 76¢ on Polymarket, but every recent poll still has him ahead.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢, -2 pts)
The late El Sayed vs Rogers polls point the same direction with very different margins: New York Times/Siena had him ahead 53% to 42%, AtlasIntel had him up 54% to 46% and Emerson had him at 51% to 45%.
The RealClearPolling average has him ahead by 5.3 points, 50.3% to 45.0%, and FiftyPlusOne's final average had it at 50.5% to 45.0%.
Mike Rogers (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢, +2 pts)
Rogers gained 2 points after Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the August primary to El-Sayed, endorsed him on Sunday, citing a campaign ad she had asked El-Sayed to condemn and his ties to a political streamer.
El-Sayed said he does not think about Stevens, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other top Democrats said they still back him. The New York Times/Siena, Emerson and AtlasIntel surveys all finished fieldwork on November 1, the day of the endorsement, so they likely capture little of its effect.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, and both Yes and No trade on every line, so its board quotes an actual price on each side rather than a derived one.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3. The Senate market has traded about $36.8 million in volume, against $1.24 million on the Governor board, and the movement figures below come from Kalshi's chance column, which can differ by a cent from the Yes prices used in the headings.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Kalshi has Benson at 94.1¢, and its margin forecast has the Democrat up 9.1 points, close to the RealClearPolling average of roughly 8 points.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 94.1¢ / NO 6¢, -0.6 pts)
Benson slipped 0.6 points and sits a tenth of a cent above her Polymarket price.
A win would make her the first woman to succeed another woman as Michigan governor, following the term-limited Gretchen Whitmer.
John James (YES 6.6¢ / NO 93.5¢, +0.6 pts)
James gained 0.6 points and trades 0.4¢ below his Polymarket price. Kalshi's Yes and No quotes on his contract add up to 100.1¢, so the board is a tight read.
His best demographic news in the late polling is among independents, who split 45% to 45% in a Mitchell Research survey that had Benson ahead 49% to 44% overall.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on El-Sayed at 76¢, with a margin forecast of Democrat +3.7.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢, -3 pts)
El-Sayed lost 3 points in Kalshi's chance column, one more than on Polymarket, and the 3.7-point forecast sits below both the 5.3-point RealClearPolling average and the 11-point lead in the New York Times/Siena survey.
He voted by absentee ballot before Election Day, and his campaign closed with a video featuring former President Barack Obama.
Mike Rogers (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢, +3 pts)
Rogers gained 3 points and trades at the same 25¢ as on Polymarket, even though Kalshi's chance column rounds him to 24%.
He voted in White Lake on Tuesday morning, and the stakes reach beyond Michigan: Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip it.
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Michigan Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the favorite at 78¢ on Polymarket and 77¢ on Kalshi, a Benson win paired with a Rogers win is next at 16¢ on both, and the two outcomes involving a James win trade at 7¢ or less.
The Benson and Rogers split ticket fell 4 points on Polymarket and 5 on Kalshi, while Polymarket's GOP sweep gained 1 point. Polymarket labels each line by party and Kalshi names the candidates, but the four pairings are the same.
The James and El-Sayed split ticket trades at 1¢ YES on both boards, and neither exchange is showing a NO price on that line at the moment.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 78¢ | NO 23¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 16¢ | NO 85¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 7¢ | NO 94¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 1¢ | No bid yet | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 77¢ | NO 24¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 16¢ | NO 85¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 6¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 1¢ | No bid yet | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite and are priced almost identically. Benson sits at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 94.1¢ on Kalshi, while El-Sayed is at YES 76¢ on both.
The underdogs show the only gaps. James trades at YES 7¢ on Polymarket and YES 6.6¢ on Kalshi, and Rogers is at YES 25¢ on both.
Both exchanges moved the same way in the Senate race, with El-Sayed down 2 points on Polymarket and 3 on Kalshi, which keeps the Michigan Senate race priced as a clear lean rather than a coin flip.
The markets and the surveys are in step on the Michigan Governor election. Benson vs James polls show her ahead by 4 to 13 points in the closing releases, and neither board has her below YES 94¢.
El Sayed vs Rogers polls are less tidy, running from InsiderAdvantage's 1-point race to the 11-point New York Times/Siena lead, and both markets sit at YES 76¢ even though every recent survey has him ahead.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is depth and contract design: Kalshi's Senate board has traded about $36.8 million against $1.24 million on its Governor board, and Polymarket's combo board uses party labels where Kalshi names the candidates.
Michigan Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Both Senate prices moved against the favorite. El-Sayed gave back 2 points on Polymarket and 3 on Kalshi while Rogers gained 2 and 3, and the Michigan Governor election barely budged, with Benson down 1 point on Polymarket and 0.6 on Kalshi.
The polling stayed in El-Sayed's favor. Every recent release among the El Sayed vs Rogers polls has him ahead, from YouGov's 4 points and CNN's 7 to AtlasIntel's 8 and New York Times/Siena's 11, and the RealClearPolling and FiftyPlusOne averages both put the margin near 5 or 6 points.
The timing is the open question. Stevens endorsed Rogers on Sunday, the same day the New York Times/Siena, Emerson and AtlasIntel surveys finished fieldwork, so the final polls likely show little of its effect, and the slide on the boards cannot be tied to any single event.
The Governor backdrop is steadier. New York Times/Siena has Benson up 13, CNN has her up 12 and Emerson has her up 4, and the RealClearPolling average sits near 8 points, which is why the Michigan Governor race still trades like a finished contest.
The combo boards add one more read. Polymarket's two Benson pairings add up to 94¢, matching her standalone price, while its two El-Sayed pairings add up to 79¢, 3¢ above his 76¢ standalone price. Kalshi's El-Sayed pairings add up to 78¢, and since combo markets generally trade thinner than the standalone boards, those gaps are worth discounting.
Turnout is the other variable. As of Monday morning, 2,313,165 Michigan voters had cast ballots, about 31.2% of 7,420,172 active registered voters, including 1,569,715 absentee ballots and 743,450 early in-person votes.
Absentee returns were running about 2.7% ahead of the same point in 2022, and roughly 605,000 requested absentee ballots had not yet come back. Michigan voters do not register by party, so the totals do not show who is ahead.
With polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time, the first results after polls close are the likeliest trigger for a repricing. Absentee ballots returned on Election Day must pass signature verification before they are counted, and a close Senate race may not be called until Wednesday, so the boards could stay volatile well into the night.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94.1¢) | $106.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (6.6¢) | $1,515.15 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Final Thoughts
The Michigan Governor race is priced like a finished contest, with Benson at 94¢ on both exchanges, while the Michigan Senate race still has movement in it: El-Sayed is at 76¢ on both boards even though every recent poll has him ahead.
Watch how many of the roughly 605,000 outstanding absentee ballots come back and how quickly counties report after polls close at 8 p.m. A Democratic sweep at 77¢ to 78¢ is the dominant combo outcome, and a close Senate count could keep the boards moving into Wednesday.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Michigan Governor race odds?
Jocelyn Benson is trading at 94¢ on Polymarket and 94.1¢ on Kalshi, while John James sits at 7¢ on Polymarket and 6.6¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the favorite at 76¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Mike Rogers priced at 25¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Benson vs James polls show?
A New York Times/Siena survey fielded October 23 to November 1 has Benson ahead 52% to 39% among likely voters, Emerson College's October 31 to November 1 poll has her up 50% to 46%, and a CNN/SSRS poll from October 20 to 27 had her at 53% to 41%.
What do the latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls show?
New York Times/Siena has El-Sayed ahead 53% to 42%, AtlasIntel has him up 54% to 46%, Emerson has him at 51% to 45%, and InsiderAdvantage had a 47% to 46% race in October. The RealClearPolling average has him ahead by 5.3 points.
How do Benson vs James polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets and the polls are in step. Closing surveys have Benson ahead by 4 to 13 points, and both exchanges price her at 94¢ or better with James at 7¢ or less.
Are El Sayed vs Rogers polls moving before Election Day?
Every recent survey has El-Sayed ahead, but the margins run from 1 point to 11 points, and several of the final polls finished fieldwork on November 1, the day Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers. Rogers gained 2 points on Polymarket and 3 on Kalshi.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Michigan races slightly differently?
The boards match on El-Sayed at 76¢ and Rogers at 25¢, and the widest gap is on James at 7¢ on Polymarket and 6.6¢ on Kalshi. Small differences like that usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Michigan Governor-Senate combo bets show?
A Benson and El-Sayed sweep trades at 78¢ on Polymarket and 77¢ on Kalshi, a Benson and Rogers split at 16¢ on both, a James and Rogers sweep at 7¢ and 6¢, and a James and El-Sayed split at 1¢ on both.
When do polls close for the Michigan Governor election?
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3, and absentee ballots must reach clerks by 8 p.m. As of Monday morning, 2,313,165 Michigan voters had already cast ballots, about 31.2% of active registered voters, and a close Senate race may not be called until Wednesday.
How do I trade the Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is decided.
