49ers vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 10, 2023

49ers at Steelers

5:00 pm • FOX

San Francisco 49ers

5-5

30 - 7

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
49ers 5-5	-1.5-110	o41.5-110	-120
Steelers 8-2	+1.5-110	u41.5-110	+100

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

September 10, 2023

Acrisure StadiumPittsburgh

G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer+250

$1.00

J.Warren o6.5 Rush Att-130

$65.00

G.Pickens o42.5 Rec Yds-127

1.27u

Follow me on Twitter. Your bank account will thank you. @Reno_Jonny

PIT +2-105

2.1u

G.Pickens o42.5 Rec Yds-110

0.2u

Boyd

PIT +2.5-110

1.1u

Bet No. 2 in our contest. Go sign up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

SF -120

$0.83

J.Warren o27.5 Rush Yds-115

G.Pickens o42.5 Rec Yds-115

PIT +3-135

0.6u

Most Common Week 1 Picks Among Last Year’s Top 25 in Circa Millions & Westgate SuperContest: #1: Browns +22 (26-4 count) #2: Buccaneers +20 (21-1) #3: Steelers +14 (17-3) #4: Titans +12 (13-1) T5: Colts +9 (12-3) T5: Raiders +9 (11-2)

PIT +118

PIT +2.5-110

$1.00

Under 41.5-110

$0.91

SF -2.5-110

PIT +2.5-110

D.Johnson u52.5 Rec Yds-113

B.Purdy o4.5 Rush Yds-120

G.Pickens Anytime TD Scorer+250

Bet at Bet365. Would play down to +225. For full analysis, watch The Touchdown Show at 11:30am ET on Sunday.

B.Purdy u32.5 Pass Att-136

0.22u

Via Brian vs the Books

PIT +3-130

1.3u

D.Johnson o50.5 Rec Yds-114

1.14u

PIT +2.5-110

1.1u

EXECUTIVE DECISION

B.Aiyuk o45.5 Rec Yds-125

0.8u

G.Pickens o40.5 Rec Yds-125

PIT +2.5-110

$1.00

B.Aiyuk u50.5 Rec Yds-115

1.15u

MGM

PIT +110

$1.00

K.Pickett o13.5 Rush Yds-114

1.14u

PIT +2.5-110

0.5u

TAN pod: Rah Rah Tomlin vs Shanny letdown spot Tomlin 14-3-3 ATS as a home dog 7 or less, Shanny 1-5 ATS week 1 Pitt D w/ Watt best unit on field. Nasty pass rush vs faltering OL and I don’t trust Purdy in a big test like this.

B.Aiyuk o3.5 Recs-145

0.69u

PIT +2.5-110

$3.00

PIT +2.5-110

0.5u

D.Johnson o4.5 Recs+118

PIT +2.5-110

0.55u

PIT +2.5-110

1.1u

Projection: +1.4. Tomlin is 15-4-3 ATS as home dog. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

PIT +2.5-110

1.1u

PIT +2.5-110

$55.00

PIT +2.5-110

Purdy is not him, Steelers win the AFC North

G.Pickens o34.5 Rec Yds-120

Pickens was 6/10 on this line last season when Pickett threw at least 20 passes. He’s the deep threat on this team (15.6 aDOT lead the Steelers last season). No more Claypool - Pickens role is more clearly defined. I expect Ward, who predominantly played LCB last season and didn’t travel, to match up more with Diontae Johnson. No Bosa (in all likelihood) and I do expect the Steelers to be playing from behind. Play to o37.5.

SF -2.5-110

0.5u

PIT +2.5-110

NFL IS BACK! Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

PIT +3-115

Available at FanDuel. You are paying a price to get a push on +3 with the -115, but I think that's still a worthwhile tradeoff over taking the moneyline at +128. The Steelers' offense seemed to make a scheme change during their Week 9 bye last year, and it led to a nice up-tick in their offensive efficiency. Specifically, they made gains on the ground and in their late-down success rate, though their early-down passing efficiency was a bit better, as well. They have a tough opponent, but we still haven't seen Brock Purdy in the preseason yet as he recovers from elbow surgery, so there is some uncertainty on the other side. Although my model projects the 49ers to have the league's best defense this year, the Steelers also rank inside the top five there after how they played once TJ Watt returned from injury. With the Steelers at home, I agree with the model that taking the three points is the right way to play this.

PIT +3-110

First bet we loved on @TheFavoritesPodcast. FD quickslip https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.380305751&selectionId[0]=50209&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Featured Insight
Steelers QBs had a 78.1 passer rating last season -- third-worst in NFL. The 49ers allowed a passer rating of 82.7 last season -- sixth-best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Steelers averaged 3.9 yards per carry on 1st Down last season -- tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The 49ers allowed 3.4 yards per carry on first down to RBs last season -- second-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Steelers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Steelers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Steelers are 4-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Steelers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Steelers' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Steelers	8-2	4-1	4-1	4-2	4-0
49ers	4-6	3-3	1-3	4-6	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Steelers	5-5	2-3	3-2	3-3	2-2
49ers	5-5	3-3	2-2	5-5	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Steelers	8-2	N/A	N/A	4-2	4-0
49ers	5-5	N/A	N/A	5-5	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 24th	@ATL	W 24-0	-6.5 W	U 38.5	PIT -261
Aug 19th	BUF	W 27-15	+1 W	U 42.5	PIT -110
Aug 11th	@TB	W 27-17	-2.5 W	O 39.5	PIT -160
Jan 8th	CLE	W 28-14	-2.5 W	O 39.5	PIT -156
Jan 2nd	@BAL	W 16-13	+1 W	U 35.5	PIT +100

MyCole Pruitt
TE
Pruitt is doubtful with knee
Doubtful
Tyler Matakevich
LB
Matakevich is questionable with hamstring
Questionable

Jamal Agnew
WR
Agnew is out with leg
Out
C.J. Henderson
CB
Henderson is out with neck
Out
Alex Highsmith
LB
Highsmith is out with ankle
Out
Ben Skowronek
WR
Skowronek is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Dylan Cook
T
Cook is out with foot
Out
Cory Trice
DB
Trice is out with hamstring
Out
Roman Wilson
WR
Wilson is out with hamstring
Out

Jon Feliciano
OL
Feliciano is questionable with knee
Questionable
Trent Williams
T
Williams is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Charvarius Ward
CB
Ward is out with personal
Out
Nick Bosa
DE
Bosa is questionable with hip
Questionable
Kevin Givens
DE
Givens is out with groin
Out
Mitch Wishnowsky
P
Wishnowsky is out with back
Out
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
Aiyuk is out with leg
Out
Yetur Gross-Matos
DE
Gross-Matos is questionable with knee
Questionable
Aaron Banks
OL
Banks is questionable with thigh
Questionable
Darrell Luter
CB
Luter is doubtful with pelvis
Doubtful

See more NFL Injuries

49ers

Total

Steelers

391

Total Yards

239

Total Plays

5.9

Yards Per Play

3.9

49ers

Passing

Steelers

220

YDS

232

19/29

Comps/Atts

31/46

6.344

YPA

3.882

2/0

TDs/INTs

1/2

3/17

Sacks/Yards

5/34

49ers

Rushing

Steelers

188

Rush Yards

Attempts

5.529

YPC

4.1

TDs

49ers

Turnovers

Steelers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

49ers

Efficiency

Steelers

2/3 66.67%

Redzone

1/2 50%

6/13 0%

3rd Down

5/15 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

1/3 0%

49ers

First Downs

Steelers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

49ers

Misc

Steelers

11/85

Penalties/Yards

6/60

37:23

Possession

22:37

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MatchupOverUnder
49ers 5-5	o20.5-125	u20.5-105
Steelers 8-2	o20.5-105	u20.5-118

49ers vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 10, 2023

49ers at Steelers

San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers

49ers at Steelers Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

49ers

Steelers

49ers vs. Steelers Previews & Analysis

3 Over/Unders Backed by Big Money, Projections

Action's NFL Betting Primer: Every Trend to Know for Week 1 (Sunday Update)

49ers vs. Steelers: Can't Pass on Tomlin as Underdog

Gallant's 3 Anytime TD Picks for Sunday Afternoon

49ers vs. Steelers Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

49ers vs. Steelers Public Betting Percentages

49ers

Public

Steelers

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Steelers vs. 49ers Injury Updates

Steelers Injuries

49ers Injuries

49ers vs. Steelers Odds Comparison

49ers at Steelers Team Totals