We have yet to hit a winner this season, but we continue to have solid finishes. For the third event in a row, we have had at least one of our outright finish in the top 10 (Ben Griffin last week).
The purpose of this article is to find outright winners, but I generally like to bet them each way (if you can) or supplement the outright with top-5 or top-10 bets.
If you like events with course rotations (I'm not the biggest fan), this is the best part of the season. After a 3-course rotation last week at The American Express, we have a 2-course rotation for the Farmers Insurance Open. We generally see similarities between courses when they are played in the same event, but that's not the case this week.
Torrey Pines South Course is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR. It's a Par 72 that weighs in at a whopping 7,765 yards. It features narrow fairways, thick rough, and small poa annua greens. This has been at least the 9th toughest course on tour in four of the last five years. The winning score of the event has not been better than 15-under par in any of the last five editions.
It's a different story on the North Course, which is a scoreable Par 72 that measures 7,258 yards. The fairways are wider, the greens are larger, the greens are slower, and the greens have bentgrass (which is much preferred over poa annua by most PGA TOUR players).
The North Course has played as one of the seven easiest courses on tour in three of the last four years. Golfers will only get one round on the North Course, so they must make the most of it.
In general, golfers who perform best at this event are long off the tee and/or good with long irons. They also tend to be solid around the green and have a good history at this course and in California. Let's dive into this week's selections.
Farmers Insurance Open Outright Winner Picks
Sahith Theegala +3000
Theegala is one of the toughest golfers to predict on tour. When his form is trending and the course sets up well for his skill set, he often underperforms. Then he'll come out of nowhere with a top 10 finish. However, he consistently plays well in California.
He went to Pepperdine and is very comfortable on poa annua greens. He secured his first PGA TOUR win at the Fortinet Championship (Napa Valley) and is 3-for-3 in cuts made at this event, with a 4th place finish in 2023. He has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts and is one of the better drivers and putters in the field.
Taylor Pendrith +3500
Pendrith is going to be a popular selection this week, as he is in excellent form and seems to be a perfect fit for the course. Since picking up his first career win last spring, he hasn't let off the gas. He's rattled off 12 straight made cuts, with 9 top 25 finishes during that stretch.
He's one of the longest hitters in the field, excellent with his long irons, and capable of gaining 5+ strokes on the greens. While he doesn't have the best track record in California or on very difficult courses, he finished 6th here last year.
Sam Stevens +10000
Given the odds, I'm betting half as much on Stevens as I am on Theegala and Pendrith. Stevens isn't a great iron player, but he's one of the longest hitters in the field and ranks 7th in strokes gained putting on poa annua greens.
His recent finishes don't jump off the page, but he's lost 9 strokes putting in his last two events combined. We can expect his putting to improve sooner rather than later. He's 2-for-2 in making cuts at this event, with a T13 finish in 2023. At these odds, he's worth a small bet.
Good luck this week. Let's hope to find a winner!
