Like most things in Las Vegas, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open leaderboard has been fast-paced and fleeting throughout the first three rounds. Just when we thought this might turn into a head-to-head battle between Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay, the former has dropped well off the pace while the latter is among a dozen-and-a-half players within five shots of the lead.
With one round left to play, Cantlay and Martin Laird hold a share of the two-shot advantage with Matthew Wolff, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark and Austin Cook just behind them.
What has made this board so precarious, of course, is the uncommonly low numbers being posted in the desert. Already this week, there’s been a 61, three 62s and a whopping dozen 63s, which suggests a player who tees off 60-90 minutes before the final pairing could parlay an aggressive strategy into a victory on Sunday.
A few players worth consideration as outright plays:
Round 4 Outright Bets
Patrick Cantlay (+175): It might be obtuse to follow three paragraphs about the packed leaderboard with a suggestion that one of the co-leaders at a short price should be played, but Cantlay’s record at this event is nearly spotless, with a win and two runner-up finishes in three previous starts.
Despite opening 63-65-65, it still doesn’t quite feel as if he’s played his best golf yet, which is a scary proposition.
If you are backing Cantlay, you’ll likely be rooting for some tougher conditions in the final round, with less of a chance for players behind him to chase him down.
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Matthew Wolff (+600): How incredible was Wolff’s third-round performance? He shot 61, but he gained just +0.15 strokes putting. That’s because he hit the ball like a cross between Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus, picking up +6.36 strokes tee-to-green.
It’ll certainly be tough to replicate that number once again, yet if the ball-striking stays solid and a few of his burned-edge putts drop into the hole, it’s not inconceivable that Wolff could come close to matching it.
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Abraham Ancer (+4100): One of the best regular members on the PGA TOUR without a career victory, Ancer started the week at 60-1. Now, he’s not even less than half of that number, despite being just four strokes off the lead. Ancer is a tremendous ball-striker who just needs one blazing round with his putter to get over the hump for that first career win.
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Harold Varner III (+5000): So many times over the past few years, we’ve seen HV3 get into contention only to fade during a pressure-packed weekend. Perhaps this situation is exactly what he needs, starting four shots back with the knowledge that he can swing freely and play aggressively. He’ll be paired with Ancer in the sixth-to-last pairing of the day, one that could yield a long-deserving winner.
