Let's get the week started off right on the MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) front.
I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and predictions for Monday, August 5 for Giants vs Nationals and Phillies vs Dodgers.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets | Monday Model Predictions (8/5)
Billy Ward's Giants vs Nationals NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Patrick Corbin
Anecdotally, I feel like we've had poor results taking YRFIs against Patrick Corbin, but there's nothing in his numbers that suggests it's a bad idea.
He comes into this contest with a 5.88 ERA overall that "falls" to 5.44 his first time through the order. His xFIP numbers are better but still well over 4.00 in both scenarios.
He's taking on a Giants team that ranks fourth in the majors in wRC+ against lefties. Plus, the game will be played in Washington, which has a top-10 park for hitters. That's a tough combination all around.
I'm not projecting too much scoring equity on the San Francisco side against Webb, so the Giants' first-inning moneyline at +240 on Caesars is also an option.
Billy Ward's Dodgers vs Phillies NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Glasnow vs. Aaron Nola
This game is tricky to handicap, as we have two very strong pitchers facing off with two very good offenses.
The biggest factor in choosing to take this one is the plus-money odds on the YRFI throughout the industry. That's somewhat uncommon for a game with an eight-run total in general, especially one involving these two lineups.
The Dodgers are a bit limited without Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman but still have three above-average hitters in their first four. It's the same story for the Phillies, whose top four all own a wRC+ mark of at least 130.
For what it's worth, Phillies starter Aaron Nola also has slightly worse splits the first time through the order (both ERA and xFIP) as well, which only helps our case here.
