Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, May 15, including Tanner Houck and Hunter Greene.
MLB Player Props For May 15
Tanner Houck over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
| Mariners vs. Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Houck is a confounding pitcher. He's streaky, performing excellent or horrific during any given start.
However, Houck's been unlucky this year.
His 5.26 ERA is propped up by a 60.8% strand rate and 11.8% HR/FB rate, two numbers that should regress closer to his career averages (70.8% and 8.5%, respectively). As a result, Houck's xERA is hanging in the mid-3.00s, close enough to his 3.15 ERA and 3.86 xERA from last season (even if most of that production came in the bullpen).
The efficiency of his arsenal is up for debate. He's a sinker-slider pitcher, with the former sitting 94 mph and the latter breaking heavily across the plate with a 111 Stuff+ rating.
Houck's slider always reminds me of another Red Sox starting pitcher.
Chris Sale and Tanner Houck are basically mirror images of each other pic.twitter.com/wYxIFYnDzk
— tess taruskin (@tesstass) October 9, 2021
Sale has been on a tear recently, so maybe it's Houck's turn.
Either way, projections show value in Houck and his sinker-slider mix for this start, as our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Houck for 6.5 strikeouts.
Houck has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in four of seven starts this year, but this wager is mainly a fade of the Mariners.
Seattle is striking out at the second-highest rate in MLB against right-handed pitching this season, a whopping 25.4%. The Mariners have allowed 10 of their past 13 opposing starting pitchers to go over their strikeout total, including guys like Alex Faedo (7 K), Dane Dunning (5 K), Jon Gray (8 K), and Jack Flaherty (9 K).
If those guys can punch out the Mariners, Houck can. I'll grab his strikeout total at FanDuel.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Hunter Greene over 5.5 strikeouts (-116)
| Reds @ Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 8:40 p.m. |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Greene looks good. His Stuff+ sits at a whopping 127, and he's improved his average fastball velocity from 99 mph to 99.3 mph.
As a result, Greene's strikeout numbers haven't skipped a beat. He's still striking out around 30% of batters faced behind a 15% Swinging-Strike rate, forcing a 44.2% Whiff rate on his slider.
Greene has cashed over 5.5 Ks in five of eight starts this year, including three of his past four.
Between the 98-mph fastballs and two tough, in-breaking sliders, Greene has the stuff to strike out double-digit hitters per game.
Greene still has to work on his batted-ball profile, but he's kept his ERA around 3.70 and his xERA around 4.00. He profiles as a high-BABIP pitcher, but his .373 BABIP this year still feels too high, so maybe regression is coming.
While the Rockies strike out at a league-average rate, they shouldn't challenge Greene's weaknesses. The Rockies rank 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year behind a bottom-four average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit rate.
So, I'm penciling Greene in for a quality start (maybe five or six innings) while continuing to strike out over 1.3 batters per inning. If that's the case, Greene should cash this number with ease.
Either way, our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Greene for 6.5 strikeouts on Monday, while BallParkPal projects him at 6.6 strikeouts, so there's good value on the 5.5 number available at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-116)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
