As the futures betting market has clearly established, the Twins are no joke this year. Just a couple of months following their preseason listing of 25-1 (and even higher at some books), they're down to just 7-1 to win the World Series — trailing only the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees.
Their 40-18 record to this point has also put them completely in the driver's seat in the AL Central. The preseason division favorite Indians are way back at 29-30 — tied with the White Sox ([) for second place.
So naturally, as the Twins get ready to face Cleveland tonight, oddsmakers opened the line at Indians -120. Wait, what?
Oh, and the updated line now sits at Cleveland -131 …
>> All odds as of 10:40 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
It's not going to take much convincing to get the public to take the team with the best win percentage in baseball at plus-money, so you shouldn't be too surprised to see 73% of bettors on Minnesota.
If history has taught me anything in baseball betting, though, it's that when a unlikely team is favored, there's good reason for it.
As for what the reason actually is, I couldn't care less. Draw up some theory about Biebs having good splits against the Twins (does he?) or something about Cleveland's bats being able to hit lefties well (do they?) if you need to comfort yourself.
Here's what I'm concerned with:
Favorites that have received less than one-third of bets, but have moved at least five cents to a listing of -130 or higher are 67-30 (69%) since 2005. That's been good for 17.3 units won and a 17.8% return on investment.
And if you're concerned about the Indians' record being far inferior, history would tell you not to be. Eighty-three of the 97 teams included in the above system had a worse record that their opponents.
In fact, when the team's record is at least five percentage points worse than its opponent's, that record improves to 51-17 (75%), winning 18.8 units (27.9% ROI).
For what it's worth, the Indians' current line also sits in the most profitable range of that system (between -130 and -140). Filtering by teams that fall into that zone creates a ridiculous 29-6 record that's won 15.7 units for a 44.8% ROI.
Personally, I'd put more weight into the system before filtering it in such a specific way, as there's bound to be some 10-cent range that's more profitable than the others, but it certainly doesn't hurt to add another cherry on top, even if it adds only a sliver of meaning.
The pick: Indians -131
