Check out the Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler odds for UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC 309 co-main event features a rematch between the No. 2-ranked lightweight Charles Oliveira and No. 7 Michael Chandler. This matchup is expected to end inside the distance, and I will be backing the favorite to do just that.
Here's my Chandler vs. Oliveira pick and prediction.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Odds
| Oliveira Odds | -258 |
| Chandler Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-110 / -120) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 12:00 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 309 odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 309 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tony Sartori's Tale of the Tape
| Oliveira | Chandler | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-10 | 23-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:07 | 7:44 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/17/1989 | 4/24/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.39 | 4.89 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.20 | 4.58 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 38% |
| TD Def | 55% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 2.8 | 0.9 |
Over three years ago, these two walked to the octagon at UFC 262 with the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship on the line. At that time, the perceptions of these two fighters were vastly different than they are today, which is why Oliveira hovered around the -130 mark while Chandler returned at roughly +110.
Oliveira was entering with 38 professional bouts under his belt, with a great deal of those coming in the UFC promotion. It was the renaissance point of his career, of sorts, given that he was riding an eight-fight win streak following his 2-4 stretch in the mid-2010s.
On the other hand, that bout was the ultimate test for Chandler, a former Bellator champion who looked like he was primed to take over the UFC as well, following his first round knockout against Dan Hooker at UFC 257. This was going to be the biggest test of his career.
As fans, we received a memorable performance in which Oliveira battled back from some early adversity and reminded everyone just who he is with a second-round TKO, while questions remained of whether Chandler's prime was left in the rival promotion.
While Chandler deserves respect, it appears the latter part of that previous sentence reigns true. He would go on to lose two of his next three bouts to the likes of Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, while his one win came against a (again, with all due respect) washed Tony Ferguson.
Oliveira vs. Chandler Pick, Prediction
So, what has happened since that Saturday evening in May 2021? Well, nothing good for Chandler, which is why these odds are much further apart than they were three years ago.
Let alone the fact that he is 1-2 over his past three fights, Chandler has dealt with the out-of-octagon experience that is Conor McGregor. Those two coached TUF, were scheduled to fight, and then had on-and-off-again "negotiations" for two years.
I put negotiations in quotes because a negotiation requires two parties, and I'm not sure McGregor was too present during this time. Point being, while Chandler was waiting for the Notorious to figure it out, the 38-year-old missed two years of octagon time, which is almost always a death sentence in this sport, unless you are Jon Jones.
Meanwhile, since his fight against Chandler, Oliveira has gone 3-2 with wins over the two guys who beat Chandler as well as Beneil Dariush. His two losses came against Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, two guys that will battle for the 155-pound title shortly (rumored for UFC 311 in January).
Not only did Oliveira beat Chandler the last time out, but everything since then would only suggest a repeat of history. However, I have no interest in laying -258 in him to do so, which is why I am going to go with his submission prop at +150.
The only reason this line isn't closer to even odds is because Oliveira won by TKO in the first meeting. However, this is still the greatest submission artist in the history of the UFC.
And, if Poirier can submit Chandler, then so can Oliveira.
Tony's Pick: Charles Oliveira by Submission (+150 at FanDuel | Play to +145)
