Jailton Almeida (18-3) and Serghei Spivac (17-4) face off on the main card on UFC 311 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif., tonight.
This bout was moved to the main card when Renato Moicano was moved into the main event. Almeida is 7-1 in the UFC and bounced back from that only loss with a win last June over Alexander Romanov. Spivac is 8-3 in the UFC and has won four of his last five fights.
Let's get the latest Almeida vs. Spivac odds and our expert's pick.
Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac Odds
| Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida Odds | -485 |
| Serghei Spivac Odds | +370 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (-110 / -120) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday afternoon.
Projection: Jailton Almeida (84.1%)
Jailton Almeida has a severe wrestling and grappling advantage over the heavyweight division, but he has significant question marks concerning his gas tank and durability. That's clear by his nine takedowns in 5 minutes before an awkward TKO loss against Curtis Blaydes.
Almeida, who could still compete at light heavyweight if he desired to make the weight cut, has spent 88% of his fight time in control position, compared to Spivac, a fellow grappler, at 37%.
Spivac hasn't been put on the bottom often, but he is a far slower athlete than Almeida. The Brazilian should be able to do what he wants when both fighters are fresh.
Spivac may be the superior striker, but he's unlikely to find opportunities to express that advantage unless he can deny takedowns or scramble back to his feet after getting put on his back. Jailton rarely waits long before shooting on opponents.
Almeida vs. Spivac Prediction
I project value on Almeida up to -450 as a straight bet or -500 as a parlay piece, but I'd probably prefer his odds to win in Round 1 (+170) or the Under 1.5 Rounds (-115).
Bets
- Under 1.5 Rounds (-115, 0.25u) at ESPN BET; bet to -125
