In the first matchup of the UFC 311 card Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2) faces Clayton Carpenter (8-0) on Saturday night from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
The 28-year-old Carpenter is an underdog to remain undefeated against Ulanbekov, who is coming off back-to-back submission wins.
Let's get into my Ulanbekov vs. Carpenter pick and preview in the flyweight division tonight.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter Odds, Prediction
| Flyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tagir Ulanbekov Odds | -340 |
| Clayton Carpenter Odds | +270 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-245 / +185) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday afternoon.
Projection: Tagir Ulanbekov (69.4%)
At age 33 (turning 34 in July), Tagir Ulanbekov is on the wrong side of the age curve for the 125-pound division (average age 31) and has more canceled bouts (eight) than completed fights (six) in the UFC.
Tagir is a large body for the flyweight division and struggles to make weight, leading to lackluster cardio in the third round of his fights.
Carpenter is five years younger, unbeaten, in his physical prime, and from a reputable gym (The MMA Lab). However, he needs to overcome a four-inch reach discrepancy at distance against a more skilled opponent.
While I show value on Carpenter's moneyline pre-fight (projected +227) and would take +250 or better, you might find a better live price after Round 1 — or midway through Round 2 — before Carpenter takes over with a superior gas tank in the back half of the fight.
The betting market expects this fight to reach a decision (lined -225, near 70% implied). Ulanbekov often fails to separate from his opponents on the scorecards, with a negative strike differential (-0.41 per minute) for his career.
And the wrestling-based fighters on Saturday's card won't get as much scoring deference for empty takedowns as they typically do in Abu Dhabi or the UAE (where Ulanbekov scored a split-decision win).
Bets
- Clayton Carpenter (+270, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +250
- Clayton Carpenter Live after Round 1
