The Boston Celtics (29-13) and Golden State Warriors (21-20) will square in the NBA this evening. Tipoff is set for 5 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Celtics are 9.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Celtics -9.5), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Boston is a a -440 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +340 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Monday, January 20.
Celtics vs. Warriors Prediction
Spread
With the Celtics performing exceptionally well off a loss this season, I recommend laying the -9.5 points with the visitors at DraftKings.
Moneyline
I have no interest in the moneyline with Boston as high as -500.
Over/Under
The total is a pass for me, with the current number at 224.5. My model has a projection of 222.8, which isn't nearly enough of an edge to recommend a play in either direction.
My Pick: Celtics -9.5
Celtics vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | -440 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | +340 |
- Celtics vs. Warriors spread: Celtics -9.5
- Celtics vs. Warriors over/under: 224.5 total points
- Celtics vs. Warriors moneyline: Celtics -440, Warriors +340
- Celtics vs. Warriors best bet:Celtics -9.5 (-110)
My Warriors vs. Celtics best bet is on Boston to cover the spread as big road favorites, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Preview
Since opening as a five-point favorite, we've seen a massive market move on Boston. Although you might feel a little late to the party, there's still value at the current number.
Boston is a team I was looking to back unconditionally, given that they're coming off a defeat at home to the Hawks. Despite being somewhat erratic over their last eight games with alternating wins and losses, the Celtics have suffered back-to-back defeats only once this season.
The ability to bounce back off a loss certainly made the Celtics an attractive side in this matchup. And while such resilience helps highlight their underlying value, our position is further strengthened when you consider the Warriors' injury report.
Jonathan Kuminga (16.8 PPG), Draymond Green (8.4 PPG), Brandin Podziemski (8.0 PPG) and Kyle Anderson (5.4 PPG) are all ruled out, while Stephen Curry is questionable due to an ankle injury.
Kuminga is the Warriors' third-leading scorer, while Green is widely regarded as the team's heart and soul. Podziemski and Anderson are solid contributors off the bench, but Curry remains their best player.
If the two-time MVP isn't close to 100%, the challenge will only become more difficult for the Warriors.
It has been a bizarre season for the Warriors, who have a lot of talent on paper. Unfortunately, they seem to be at a standstill at the moment because they're probably at a point where someone else needs to take the reins from Curry and put the team on his back.
At 36, Curry can't carry the bulk of the load anymore. His scoring has dropped from 26.4 PPG last season to 23.0 PPG this campaign, and you'd have to go back an entire decade (2014-15) to find the last time Curry played the majority of the season and still averaged under 24 points.
When you put it all together, the injury report could indeed be the downfall of the Warriors in this contest. They'll also have to contend with a Boston team that'll be out for blood, as it's 8-2 (80%) against the spread this season when coming off a loss as a favorite of 10 or more points.
It's worth noting that Boston is a perfect 4-0 as the visiting team in this spot.
Given the strength of those numbers, I'm even more confident in laying the points on the road.
Celtics vs. Warriors Best Bets, Predictions
Now that I've given my reasons for the Celtics to cover the spread, there's a strong likelihood that the visitors put up a lot of points in their quest to bounce back from their recent defeat. After all, the point spread is heavily in favor of the Celtics.
One interesting correlation is that Boston has scored at least 118 points in nine of the 10 games this season as a double-digit favorite when off a loss.
At BetMGM, bettors can take advantage of some alternate lines by playing the Celtics to go over a team total of 116.5 points (130). I've also paired that as part of a same-game parlay with the Celtics' alternate line of -9.5 at -115 odds.
Lastly, I'll look to add Boston's Kristaps Porzingis to exceed his 3-point field goal prop of 1.5 at -160.
Porzingis has recorded at least three 3-pointers in four straight games and has gone over 1.5 3-pointers in 13 of 18 (72%) games this season.
Given how eager and willing the Celtics are when it comes to bombing away from the perimeter, Porzingis should get plenty of looks to go over this prop tonight.
Combining the three legs in our same-game parlay would boost our odds +230.
Best Bet: Celtics -9.5 (-110)
Celtics vs. Warriors Parlay Picks
- Celtics -9.5
- Celtics Team Total Over 116.5
- Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Parlay Payout: +230
Celtics vs. Warriors Betting Trends
