The Los Angeles Lakers (8-4) and New Orleans Pelicans (4-9) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Smoothie King Center in The Big Easy. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Lakers are 7.5-point road favorites over the Pelicans on the spread (Lakers -7.5), with the over/under set at 219.5 total points. Los Angeles is a -300 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +240 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pelicans vs Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, November 16.
Lakers vs Pelicans Prediction, Picks
Spread
The odds for this matchup opened at a consensus line of Lakers -6.5, with FanDuel actually laying a -7.5 as the lone discrepancy. The oddsmakers moved its line to match the -7.5, otherwise their handle would have been overexposed on the people who want Pelicans and go bet there at the +7.5.
Now they have -7.5 (-110) for the Lakers, and still prefer to take some but not an overwhelming amount of Pelicans action. I am playing the -7.5 on the Lakers because I think this moves eventually back to -7 or -7.5 at close.
If we find out that LeBron and AD are both active on the second leg of a back to back, it could even get to -8. These are key numbers for NBA spreads and worth trying to get CLV relative to these spots.
Moneyline
The Lakers are -275 favorites, which carries an implied probability of 73%. I think that is actually very fair considering it is a home game against the depleted Pelicans roster.
The Lakers have won their last two, and are coming into this game on the second leg of a back to back after beating the Spurs in the NBA Cup group stage game on Friday.
If you prefer the insurance on the second night of a back to back, play the Lakers ML for 1-unit of risk and take home less return, rather than laying 1-unit on the -7.5 spread.
Total (Over/Under)
The total opened as high as 224.5 and took some pretty immediate under action. We are now seeing this line down to a 220.5. It makes sense because the Pelicans have lacked a scoring punch outside of Brandon Ingram with all of their injuries.
However, the Lakers defense is not good this season, and this could end up being high scoring and high pace. I would prefer the under, but have to avoid betting into a line that already moved three points in the direction that I want.
My Pick: Lakers -7.5
Lakers vs Pelicans Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 219.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 219.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
- Lakers vs. Pelicans spread: Lakers -7.5
- Lakers vs. Pelicans over/under: 219.5 Points
- Lakers vs. Pelicans moneyline: Lakers -300, Pelicans +240
Lakers vs. Pelicans NBA Preview
The key aspects to this game are the schedule spot for the Lakers, playing the second night of a back to back with travel! They played Friday night in San Antonio, in a game that went down to the last minute of competitive play. If it was a home back to back, I would feel more comfortable instantly backing the Lakers in a few ways, instead I will do it with just a small ATS play -6.5.
The Pelicans are still dealing with a rash of injuries and until further noticed should be referred to as the Shellicans, because they are a shell of the team we expected.
The Pelicans injury report would be a solid roster on its own merit, include Alvarado, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, and Zion Williamson. That's a possible small ball starting five not to be trifled with.
Lakers vs. Pelicans Prediction
My best bet for this game is Lakers -7.5, and for my SGP, would recommend Anthony Davis over on his rebounds prop at 11.5.
If AD does suit up for the second night of a B2B, he has a chance to dominate the paint. The only active center on the Pelicans roster is rookie Yves Missi. This is also slight revenge spot for AD, we remember him wearing the "That's all Folks" t-shirt as he requested to be traded to the Lakers.
The two sides have had those kind of jabs over the years, and given the large matchup advantage, this could be one where AD stands for all day, not Anthony Davis.
