The NBA All-Star break begins on Friday. Players have varying levels of motivation in the final games before the break as they look forward to time off, which makes handicapping games difficult.
Given the uncertainty, I used Bet Labs to analyze how favorites, home teams and betting against the public has performed before the All-Star break. The data below includes all games played on Wednesday and Thursday before the break, when most teams play their last game, since 2005.
NBA Against-the-Spread Results Before the All-Star Break
The results are mixed as favorites and home teams have winning records, but bettors would be breaking even at best wagering on them. To find an edge I looked at opponent data, specifically teams playing on a back-to-back.
The NBA has taken steps to reduce the number of games played in consecutive days as players are more likely to suffer injuries playing two games in two nights. But, with an 82-game schedule, teams are still forced into a handful of back-to-backs.
The optimal time for the league to schedule back-to-backs is before the All-Star break, as the extended rest over the weekend should give players time to recover. This creates an opportunity for savvy bettors. If there was ever a time for a team with tired legs to mail it in, the last game before a vacation seems like a great spot.
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Since 2005, betting against an opponent on a back-to-back in the last games before the All-Star break has gone 79-55-3 (58.9%) against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs. For comparison, in all other games betting against an opponent on a back-to-back has gone 4,137-4087-148 (50.3%) ATS.
Wednesday is the last full NBA slate until the league returns to action after the All-Star Break. Two teams are playing opponents in the second game of a back-to-back, and are a match for this betting strategy.
Wednesday Game matches
- New York Knicks -2.5 vs. Washington Wizards (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Portland Trail Blazers (8 p.m. ET)
