We have only one NBA player prop pick for Saturday's slate of contests, as our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on one player in particular in tonight's marquee matchup between Memphis and Minnesota.
Read below for our top NBA player prop pick for Saturday, January 11.
NBA Player Prop Pick for Saturday, January 11
- Desmond Bane Under 17.5 Points (-125)
Desmond Bane Under 17.5 Points (-125)
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves, 8:00 p.m. ET
It seems like this line is leaning a bit too heavily on historical production. Bane averaged a career-high 23.7 PPG last season and has been at 18+ for three straight years, but his role and opportunities have been different this season.
Minutes are down across the board for the Grizzlies, and we've seen plenty of time off for the main stars. Bane is averaging just 28.9 MPG, his lowest since his rookie season.
His shot attempts (-5.4), 3-point attempts (-2.8), and free throws (-1.1) are all down significantly compared to 2023-24.
Bane has managed to average 16.7 points per game, but he's benefited from Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. missing time.
The trio has only played 15 games together this year, and Bane has been the clear 3rd option. Morant (31.6%) and Jackson (26.9%) have dwarfed Bane in usage (20.6%) when they're all healthy.
Bane has taken 2 fewer shots and averaged just 14.8 points in their 15 games together. He's shot better than usual in those situations (50% FG%), so there's room for further scoring regression there.
Minnesota remains a stiff test for opposing offenses. They're 6th in defensive rating and 4th in points allowed per game.
The Timberwolves have held opponents to the 4th-fewest made 3-pointers and the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage, which hurts Bane (44.5% of FGAs from 3-point range). They're also allowing the 8th-fewest points per game to shooting guards.
Pick: Desmond Bane Under 17.5 Points (-125)
