We have two NBA player props for this Saturday, one for the first and final matchups on today's slate, and we're focused on some key players who could be in line for big performances to start the weekend.
Bucks vs. Hornets sets the stage at 3 p.m. ET, and our first prop will be for Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. Our second pick of the day comes from Jazz vs. Kings, which is set to begin at 10 p.m. ET, so we will also be taking a look at Kings guard Kevin Huerter.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, November 16.
NBA Player Props: Saturday, Nov. 16
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 Assists (-140, DraftKings)
- Kevin Huerter Over 11.5 Points (-115, Caesars)
Bucks vs Hornets Player Prop Pick
I hit this on Tuesday in Milwaukee's first game without Damian Lillard. I'm going back to it today. Antetokounmpo has exactly 7 assists in both games without Lillard, but his opportunities suggest much more upside.
Antetokounmpo has a silly 42.7% assist rate with Lillard off the floor this season. In a much larger sample last season, he had a 36.7% assist rate with both Lillard and Khris Middleton off the floor. Lillard has led the Bucks this year with 6.6 assists on 13.6 potential assists per game. Antetokounmpo isn't far behind, with 5.5 assists on 11.1 potential assists. Since Lillard went down, he's upped it to a massive 16.5 potential assists. He's making nearly 10 more passes per game.
The give and take with Lillard being off the floor is that while Antetokounmpo gets to be more of a play maker, he's also passing to worse shooters. Converting 16.5 potential assists into 7 assists isn't ideal.
For context, there are seven players averaging at least 15 potential assists per game. They've all posted at least 8.5 assists per game. If Milwaukee can start knocking down some shots, we could get a massive assist game from Antetokounmpo.
Charlotte's defensive metrics are mediocre (16th in defensive rating, 14th in points allowed). The positive is that they allow the 8th-highest rate of assisted field goals. When they give up buckets, there is often an assist attached.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 Assists
Jazz vs Kings Player Prop Pick
I was kind of hoping Huerter would struggle last night so we'd get a better number. That's exactly what happened. Huerter's prop jumped to 14.5 against Minnesota, which makes sense with Malik Monk and DeMar DeRozan sidelined. Huerter gets a 2.4% usage rate boost with both guys off the floor.
The absence of Monk also solidifies the minutes. The problem was that Minnesota is one of the best defenses in the league against 3-point shooters. They limited Huerter to 2 for 7 from the field and 0 for 3 from deep.
This matchup is much better. Utah allows the 5th-most made 3-pointers on the 5th-most attempts. They've allowed the 8th-highest 3-point percentage.
The Jazz gave up the most 3-pointers per game and the highest 3-point percentage last season. Huerter takes 61.4% of his shot from 3-point range. He's scoring 50.8% of his points from 3-pointers.
It's an ideal matchup for a player like Huerter. The usage should be there, and the minutes should be plentiful with Monk and DeRozan sidelined for the Kings tonight.
Pick: Kevin Huerter Over 11.5 Points
