The Denver Nuggets (19-14) and San Antonio Spurs (18-16) face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Nuggets are 3-point road favorites over the Spurs on the spread, with the over/under set at 236.5 total points. Denver is a -142 favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Nuggets vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, January 4.
Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks
Spread
After losing to the Spurs by a score of 113-110 at home yesterday, the Nuggets now find themselves tagged as short road favorites in today's rematch against San Antonio.
Moneyline
However, I will not be picking a side in tonight's contest. Instead, I will be targeting the total.
Over/Under
My Spurs vs. Nuggets best bet is on the Under at 237 total points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 237 (-115)
Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | -142 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- Nuggets vs. Spurs spread: Nuggets -3
- Nuggets vs. Spurs over/under: 236.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Spurs moneyline: Spurs +120, Nuggets -142
- Nuggets vs. Spurs best bet: Under 237 (-115)
Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Preview
If you play fantasy basketball, it is likely that Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic were two of the first players off the board in your draft. The two star centers certainly filled up the stat sheet in their first meeting of the season last night.
Wembanyama had 35 points, 18 rebounds, four assists, and two blocks while Jokic had 41 points, 18 rebounds, nine assists, and two steals. And although Wembanyama’s two blocks were below his season average, his second one on Jokic helped the Spurs seal a 113-110 victory. Wembanyama remains the heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Tonight, the teams will meet in San Antonio to complete the home-and-home on consecutive nights. Denver had won six of eight against the Spurs, but the Spurs have now won the last two meetings.
Denver’s last trip to San Antonio was particularly impactful, as the loss cost the Nuggets the top seed in last season’s playoffs. The Nuggets would go on to lose in the second round to the Timberwolves.
That 121-120 Spurs victory went over 240 points, but was also an outlier in recent meetings. Last night’s game went under by 16 points and we have a similar total tonight. That may present some value on the total tonight, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be individual standout performances.
Chris Paul had 11 assists in last night's game. He has recorded eight assists in six of his last nine games, and the Nuggets are allowing the most assists per game this season. Three of Paul's assists were to Wembanyama last night and I would expect several more tonight.
Wembanyama has scored 26 points in eight of his last 10 games and 34 points in each of his last two games against the Nuggets. He has also scored 22 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in four of his five career games against the Nuggets. He is averaging 26.2 points and 13 rebounds in those five games.
Meanwhile, Jokic's dominance of the Spurs extends beyond Wembanyama’s time in the league and has not stopped despite his defensive presence. Jokic has scored 25 points in nine of his 12 games against the Spurs and grabbed 11 rebounds in seven of them. He is averaging 32.4 points and 12.4 rebounds in those 12 games.
Michael Porter Jr. has also enjoyed a lot of success against the Spurs and he had 22 points last night. He has scored 15 points in five of his last eight games against the Spurs with three 20-point games in that stretch.
Nuggets vs. Spurs Best Bets, Predictions
The Under has hit in three of the last four and six of the last 10 meetings between these teams. All six games that went under finished with 227 points or fewer and four of them had totals north of 234 points.
Last night's total was 238.5 and finished with 223 points. We have a similar total tonight, but both teams are traveling and playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Additionally, a team with Jokic and Paul will typically have an efficient offense. However, both players are among the best in the league at controlling the pace of a game and both tend to slow games down. I expect that to be a factor in tonight's game going under as well.
Jokic and Paul are also among the players I am targeting for tonight's same-game parlay. The Nuggets have six of their last 10 games as Jokic has scored 25 points in eight of them. Russell Westbrook's insertion into the starting lineup has been a factor as the two have quickly developed strong chemistry.
Combined, Jokic and Westbrook are averaging 16.3 assists per game, and I would expect both of them to set up Porter a few times each.
Porter has scored 18 points in seven consecutive games and knocked down 3+ triples in six straight games.
For San Antonio, Wembyanama has recorded at least 42 points + rebounds (PR) in three of his last five games overall.
Another game with 40 PR would get him safely over this line. I also like Paul to have another game with eight assists. He is averaging 8.3 assists per game this season.
Additionally, Jokic, Porter, and Paul have had success reaching their respective lines on the second night of back-to-backs. Wembyanama has not, but he has been dominant against the Nuggets, and I expect that to continue tonight.
Best Bet: Under 237
Spurs vs. Nuggets Parlay Picks
- Nikola Jokic 25+ Points
- Michael Porter Jr. 15+ Points
- Chris Paul 8+ Assists
- Victor Wembanyama Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +344
