The Phoenix Suns (14-13) and Denver Nuggets (15-11) face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites over the Suns on the spread (Denver -4.5), with the over/under set at 231 total points. The Nuggets are a -200 favorite to win outright, while the Suns are +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Suns vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Monday, December 23.
Suns vs. Nuggets Picks, Prediction
Spread
The spread for this game opened at a consensus Nuggets -7. However, this was during the Nuggets-Pelicans game in New Orleans on Sunday evening, which would end up going to overtime.
Since the Nuggets had to play a 53-minute game on the road last night, and will take longer to get home, the line has started to creep towards Phoenix, and is now priced at Suns +4.5.
This is seemingly universal for NBA games and teams who are playing on a back to back.
If the first game goes to overtime and the line for the next night is already out, grab the other side and fade them. It is taking action and gaining closing line value, and then you can decide later if you want to ride it or not.
I agree with this movement also, considering the recent poor play from the Nuggets, and would take the Suns to cover the spread in this spot. There are a few spots I like in this game, so let's play 0.75 units here.
Moneyline
The moneyline is dipping in response to the schedule spot for the Nuggets. If you like the Suns, I would advise also playing the moneyline.
The Nuggets defense has been a wreck recently, and the Suns recently returned Kevin Durant. Devin Booker will be out for this game, but that has been known and is already priced in.
The Suns are also likely waiting for the Nuggets in Denver already, and probably have both a slight travel and rest advantage despite tonight's matchup being in Colorado. Play the ML-escalator for 0.25 units on the Suns at plus-money.
Over/Under
The total in tonight's matchup is 231. The interesting part is, the Nuggets and Suns also play in two days from now on Christmas Day, and the total is currently priced at 234.
We know playing the mini-double header leads to less scoring, the primetime spot likely leads to less scoring. So, why is the second game priced higher?
Devin Booker is the obvious reason, and the schedule spot. But considering how bad the Nuggets defense has been lately, and the possibility of missing Jamal Murray, this mat be an over-spot, if it leads to Russell Westbrook getting more run time alongside Jokic.
If Westbrook gets some extra run, and the Suns have KD, I like the over here. Play this one for a half-unit as well, bringing our total exposure on this game to 1.5 total units.
My Picks:
- Suns +6.5 (-125), 0.75 units
- Suns Moneyline (+165), 0.25 units
- Over 231 (-110), 0.5 units
Suns vs. Nuggets Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 231 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 231 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Suns vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -4.5
- Suns vs. Nuggets over/under: 231 total points
- Suns vs. Nuggets moneyline: Suns +165, Nuggets -200
- Suns vs. Nuggets best bet: Suns +6.5, Suns ML, Over 231
Suns vs. Nuggets Preview
This is the first of two games between the Nuggets and Suns over the next three days.
The first will be tonight, before a brief break on Christmas Eve, and then they will meet again for the nightcap on Christmas Day.
The things to note are that the first game presents poorly for the Nuggets from a scheduling standpoint.
They just went to overtime against the Pelicans and now travel back to Denver to take on the Suns.
The Suns have a rest and travel advantage as the away team. But considering the holiday break, and another matchup on the horizon, we normally see a flip in the way the game script goes.
Look to back the loser of tonight's on Christmas Day.
Suns vs. Nuggets Prediction
Because this is the first of a two-leg mini-series between the Suns and Nuggets, and considering both odds are already priced, I think we can get funky with a fun little parlay that includes both games.
Instead of an same game parlay, let's play into spots that correlate with the back to back matchup.
I advise going Over 231 in tonight's matchup, and then Under 234 on Christmas Day. And if you really want to get crazy, flip the winners as well. Perhaps you like Suns ATS here, and Nuggets ATS on Christmas Day. If the first leg hits today, then the Christmas Night game will be a blast!
Best Bets: Suns +6.5, Suns ML, Over 231
Nuggets vs. Suns Parlay Picks
- Over 231 (-110) today
- Under 234 (-110), Christmas Day
Parlay Payout: +264
Nuggets vs. Suns Betting Trends
