The Minnesota Timberwolves (17-14) and Oklahoma City Thunder (26-5) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Thunder are 7-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread, with the over/under set at 217 total points. Oklahoma City is a -270 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for New Year's Eve.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks
Spread
While I like the Thunder to cover as 7-point favorites, I'm giving this a pass, considering Minnesota's 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings.
Over/Under
We're seeing a slight uptick in Minnesota's offensive efficiency, as my model projects a total closer to 218.5. Thus, the over warrants strong consideration, with DraftKings hanging the number at 216.5 points.
My Pick: Over 216.5 (-115)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 217 -110 / -110 | +220 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 217 -110 / -110 | -270 |
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -7
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder over/under: 217 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder moneyline: Timberwolves +220, Thunder -270
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder best bet: Over 216.5 points (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
As good as the Timberwolves have been in recent meetings, I still must treat each season independently. As of now, OKC is the highest-rated team in my rankings. While I may be a bit too high on the Thunder, their current Net Rating is 12.1, which is even higher than that of the reigning champion Boston Celtics at this point on New Year's Eve last season (10.4).
Yet, for some reason, there seems to be a bias against this OKC team, which has done nothing but continue to win games even while one of its best players, Chet Holmgren, remains sidelined with a hip injury.
Since Holmgren's absence, Oklahoma City has gone 18-3. It enters this game on a six-game winning streak and an 11-1 run.
What we see from this Thunder team is practically unheard of, considering it's tied with the Trail Blazers for having the youngest roster in the league. However, while OKC has the second-best record at 26-5, Portland is languishing in the bottom quartile of the league standings with an 11-21 mark.
The Thunder have been successful in their recent drafts and have assembled a team that enjoys working under head coach Mark Daigneault. Players often highlight his relatability and strong communication skills.
One thing Daigneault doesn't compromise is the level of standard he expects from his players. Following his Coach of the Year award last season, the Thunder's best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, provided more detail on how Daigneault keeps everyone accountable.
"It doesn't matter if you've been here five years if you're the best player on the team, the worst player on the team. If you got here last week," Gilgeous-Alexander said to reporters. "There's a standard. I think that's what's allowed our culture to be what it is."
While the Thunder would probably get much more coverage if the roster had one of those prominent veterans the NBA talking heads can't seem to ignore, one can't help but notice something refreshing about watching this young core go through their growing pains in their quest for an NBA title.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Best Bets, Predictions
OKC is in a nice groove after dropping 130 points on the Grizzlies recently. As for the Timberwolves, they have also shown signs of improvement on offense, scoring at least 110 points in back-to-back games during its three-game winning streak. Minnesota guard Donte DiVincenzo has played a role in this resurgence as he came off the bench in both games to score 22 and 26 points.
It was somewhat telling when Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert shared that DiVincenzo still had some lingering frustration after being traded from New York. Gobert has almost become a confidant for his teammate and now feels the former Knicks is closer to being in a better place.
"I think now from what I'm feeling he is finally present you know he's happy, he's himself, and he's in the moment," said Gobert following Minnesota's 112-110 victory over the Spurs. "He's able to have fun, you know, being who he is and be fully mentally there."
If Gobert is correct in his assessment, I think there's value for DiVincenzo to go over his scoring prop of 11.5 points. Given the Villanova product's recent form, it makes sense for the Timberwolves to continue to ride the hot hand. DiVincenzo is 15-of-27 from the floor in his last two games while shooting 11-of-20 from beyond the arc.
We've also seen him average 35.5 minutes in those games—almost a 40% increase from his season average of 25.3. His recent performances against OKC should help instill further confidence in our play, as he scored 17 and 15 points in the two previous meetings.
The combination of this game going over the total with a Thunder moneyline and DiVincenzo going over his scoring prop would help boost our same-game parlay odds to +350.
Best Bet: Over 216 (-115)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Parlay Picks
- Over 216.5
- Thunder Moneyline
- Donte DiVincenzo Over 11.5 Points
Parlay Payout: +350
