The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, TX. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Baylor is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here are my Cincinnati vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for January 7, 2025.
Cincinnati vs Baylor Prediction
My Pick: Under 139.5 (Play to 136)
My Cincinnati vs Baylor best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs Baylor Odds, Lines, Pick
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 139.5 -110 / -110 | +190 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 139.5 -110 / -110 | -230 |
- Cincinnati vs Baylor spread: Baylor -5.5
- Cincinnati vs Baylor over/under: 139.5 points
- Cincinnati vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -230, Cincinnati +190
- Cincinnati vs Baylor best bet: Under 139.5 (Play to 136)
My Cincinnati vs Baylor College Basketball Betting Preview
Cincinnati Basketball
When it comes to teams that can contend in the Big 12, the Cincinnati Bearcats aren't at the top of the list. However, they've shown that they can't be overlooked.
The Bearcats enter this matchup as the 28th-ranked team in the country, according to KenPom, just six spots behind their opponents.
Cincinnati has gotten off to a 10-3 start by suffocating its opposition on the defensive end of the floor. It ranks seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed.
While this Baylor unit will be the toughest task for them thus far, the Bearcats should be up for the challenge defensively, as they match up well at all three levels.
Whether or not the Bearcats pull off the upset here hinges on their performance on the other end of the floor.
After a 10-1 start, Cincinnati has dropped its first two Big 12 matchups. Much of that has to do with its shooting performance, as its effective field goal percentage was below average in both losses.
However, a closer look reveals a trend, as the Bearcats have had just one game with an effective field goal percentage of over 53% against opponents ranked inside KenPom's top 100.
So, will this be the game they play to the level of their opposition, or are they set for another tough night from the field? I'm backing the trend to continue.
Baylor Basketball
There are levels to the competition when it comes to the Big 12, and the Baylor Bears found that out the hard way in their last matchup against the Iowa State Cyclones. The No. 3-ranked Cyclones trounced the Bears 74-55, further exposing the issues we've seen from Baylor defensively.
The Bears have two problematic areas defensively: beyond the arc and around the rim. Baylor ranks 350th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed and has allowed its opponents to convert 72% of their attempts from near proximity.
When it comes to Cincinnati, Baylor will need to make a concerted effort to contest shots in the paint. Over 40% of Cincinnati's offense has come from inside the paint, while it only has one true perimeter threat in Simas Lukosius.
While it may seem that the Bears are at a significant disadvantage defensively, they've contained the likes of Arkansas and UConn to moderate performances from inside the arc.
In a bounce-back effort, they can replicate those performances against the Bearcats.
Cincinnati vs. Baylor Betting Analysis
On paper, this appears to be a matchup tailor-made for the Bearcats to succeed. However, their success may only come on the defensive end, as they've yet to prove they can score with the better teams in the country.
Baylor needs to bounce back in this game, and if it does, the biggest area for improvement will be on the defensive end.
That, combined with the elite level of defense we've seen from the Bearcats, should keep this game under the total.
