2025 is here, and while college football is currently taking center stage, that doesn't mean there isn't any betting value on the hardwood.
In fact, I'm targeting three college basketball games on New Year's Day, including one in the Missouri Valley Conference between Belmont and Northern Iowa.
So, here's college basketball best bets, including three predictions and picks for Wednesday, January 1.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Villanova vs. Butler
This is a Big East showdown featuring two teams with red-hot sharpshooters.
Villanova’s offensive efficiency has buoyed a recent mini surge, while Butler boasts the nation’s 20th-best 3-point field goal percentage.
Therein lies the regression value to the under — or at least part of it.
The other slice of value comes with scheme familiarity of Thad Matta and Kyle Neptune. Both teams are technically solid on defense, and neither fouls much, if ever.
Pinned against each other, this game may emulate the second meeting between the two last season — that is, a sluggish 60-possession 72-62 affair that featured only 22 free throws the entire game.
If this turns into a jump-shooting contest — without any free throw aid — the shotmaking efficiency will need to be on point to push this game over the total.
I’m betting against that on a potentially sleep New Year's Day spot.
Pick: Under 147
The Citadel vs. Samford
The Citadel is young, green and entering hostile territory for its conference opener in Birmingham today.
Sure, the Samford pressure cooker could turn this into a bloodbath early, but it’s just as likely the Bulldogs are a little sleepy coming off a 10-day winter break hiatus.
The key will be ball security. The ‘Del struggled taking care of the rock last year, but there’s at least some Ed Conroy familiarity with Bucky McMillan’s defensive schemes.
Sophomore wing Keynan Davis played in this environment last year, when The Citadel turned in a game effort at Samford (92-80 final). The other ball handler options are dicey, but Conroy will likely slam on the pace breaks and keep the possession count low.
Large conference dogs are never fun wagers, but I expect the Bulldogs to catch Samford a little sluggish to kick off SoCon action.
Pick: The Citadel +20.5 (Play to +18)
Belmont vs. Northern Iowa
A sneaky late addition to the card thanks to early over money — someone thinks this conference tilt between Belmont and Northern Iowa favors a shootout.
My against-the-grain rationale is simple: Ben Jacobson is militant in his coaching of transition defense, a pivotal part of the scout against Belmont’s dynamite offensive attack.
The Bruins can score ably in the half-court as well, but eliminating early offense is step one to cashing the under.
Look no further than the rubber match between these two in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Despite a 75-possession game, the 67-62 final was a function of both coaches cramping interior driving lanes and over helping on post ups.
Again, the coaching matchup should lend itself to a pair of defenses forcing the other to chuck it from the cheap seats.
Barring a 15-for-30 3-point barrage, I have the total clocking in closer to 150, as opposed to the inflated 155-156 price widely available in the market.
Pick: Under 156 (Play to 155)
