The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3200. The total is set at 135 points.
Here are my Notre Dame vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
Notre Dame vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -19.5 (Play to -21)
My Notre Dame vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Notre Dame vs Duke Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -112 | 135 -110 / -110 | +1400 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -108 | 135 -110 / -110 | -3200 |
- Notre Dame vs Duke spread: Duke -19.5
- Notre Dame vs Duke over/under: 135 points
- Notre Dame vs Duke moneyline: Duke -3200, Notre Dame +1400
- Notre Dame vs Duke best bet: Duke -19.5 (Play to -21)
Spread
I'm taking the Blue Devils on the spread up to 21.
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm avoiding the total.
My Pick: Duke -19.5 (Play to -21)
Notre Dame vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Notre Dame Basketball
Notre Dame enters this Saturday contest staring down a four-game losing streak. It fell on a miracle four-point play to UNC and lost at the buzzer to NC State, so the Fighting Irish have been fairly unlucky with their recent results.
Micah Shrewsberry has four main scoring options. The fulcrum is stud point guard Markus Burton, who returned from an injury two games ago and scored 15+ points in the past two games. He’ll need to dominate here for the Fighting Irish to have a shot.
The question is, can the six-foot Burton score against the long-armed Duke defense? It sounds easier said than done, despite Burton’s immense talent.
The other key scorers are Tae Davis, Braeden Shrewsberry and Matt Allocco. The Duke rim protection should limit Davis’ interior scoring, so the shooters — Allocco and Shrewsberry — need to perform well.
On the flip side, even if Notre Dame can score, stopping Duke’s equally dominant offense is far from a sure thing. Opponents have scored on Notre Dame’s weak interior at will, shooting 52% from 2.
The Fighting Irish have struggled defensively all year, ranking 143rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. Between their inability to stop teams from scoring inside and the fact that they force turnovers just 14% of the time, it shows just how poorly Notre Dame is at containing drivers.
Duke Basketball
Calling the start of Duke’s run in the ACC “dominant” is underselling it. The Blue Devils have pummeled four straight opponents, largely because of their defense — limiting all four opponents to fewer than 1.00 PPP and three to fewer than 0.90 PPP.
Duke is the best defensive team in the country, according to KenPom. Good luck scoring against that vaunted defense, as the Blue Devils hold opponents to 40% shooting from 2 and 29% from 3.
The dominance at the rim really speaks to how good Duke is defensively, and it helps having a pair of lengthy shot-swatters like Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach.
Flagg is one of the best players in the country, as he ranks No. 2 — behind only Auburn’s Johni Broome — in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings. He’s played great lately, scoring 19+ points in four of his past five games, and is 23-of-37 from the field in his last three games.
Another underrated aspect of Flagg’s game is the open looks his dominance allows for. With Notre Dame struggling to defend the rim, Flagg will likely demand multiple defenders when he gets into the lane. That'll open up some shots from downtown for Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel.
Shooting is a huge piece of Duke’s offensive attack, as it attempts 3s on 47% of its field goal attempts.
This Duke team is just absolutely massive from top to bottom. All five starters stand 6-foot-6 or taller, with 7-foot-2 Maluach bookending the lineup.
Getting past the Blue Devils’ menacing length is an arduous task.
Notre Dame vs. Duke Betting Analysis
I have a ton of respect for Coach Shrewsberry. He’s one of the best X’s and O’s coaches in the country, and tends to overachieve with his team’s talent level.
I just don’t think the Fighting Irish are ready to head into Cameron Indoor and face a team that might be the absolute best in the sport.
I’d back the Blue Devils up to 21, matching KenPom’s projection for the game.
That number is in line with my projection for the game, and it’s a number Duke has matched or exceeded in seven straight games.
