I'll continue the Week 8 slate with three afternoon college football predictions, picks and bets for Saturday, October 19.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 29-22-1 (56.9%)
- Overall: 128-92-2 (58.2%)
College Football Predictions for Week 8 Afternoon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Charlotte +17.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Western Michigan -1 |
  | 4 p.m. | Maryland +7.5 |
Charlotte +17.5 at Navy
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Yup. I'm fading three of the biggest cash cows in college football this season in Army, Indiana and Navy.
Call me dumb or un-American, but I just think inflation has finally hit all three after such smashing ATS success to start the year.
Plus, as I mentioned with ECU against Army above, a service academy laying this type of number will always pique my interest as a potential fade candidate when not playing an absolute corpse.
It's also worth mentioning that Navy has a huge game against Notre Dame on deck, which could decide its playoff fate. So, it's possible the Mids potentially get caught peaking ahead a bit or take the foot off the gas a bit sooner than usual.
You can pretty much copy the breakdown for Charlotte against Army, as the similarities are eerily similar, but I'll share my thoughts anyway.
Both teams will benefit from a bye week, but that should be more beneficial for Charlotte since Navy runs such a unique offense. Plus, the 49ers have also dealt with more injuries than their counterpart.
It also wouldn't shock me if Navy spent a portion of its bye week preparing for Notre Dame, which it hosts next week.
The 49ers also have the element of surprise working in their favor with the potential return of Florida transfer quarterback Max Brown from injury. If he can't go, it will be true freshman Deshawn Purdie, who has led Charlotte to two straight victories after relieving Trexler Ivey in a comeback victory prior to getting the start in a 55-24 rout of ECU prior to the off week.
The Navy-modified Delaware wing-T combined with its vintage triple option with much more play-action and motion under new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic is firing on all cylinders.
However, Charlotte does at least grade out adequately in Stuff Rate and Line Yards — two areas I always focus on when handicapping defenses against service academies.
And while Navy's offensive output against Memphis was super impressive, it caught the Tigers in an ideal situational spot.
The Midshipmen's other four wins have come against an FCS school (Bucknell) and three corpses in Temple, UAB and Air Force — a trio that has a 1-15 combined record against FBS opponents.
And like Army, there's likely regression coming in the high-variance categories such as red-zone efficiency and turnover margin.
If you include FCS schools, Navy's strength of schedule ranks outside the top 140, per Sagarin, while Charlotte has played a significantly tougher slate of opponents, including Indiana, James Madison and North Carolina.
Lastly, I'm still not fully sold on a Navy defense that gave up nearly 700 yards to Memphis and just under 400 to UAB with a third-string quarterback. Charlotte will have some opportunities to hit some explosive plays — which has been the majority of its offensive output — against a Mids defense that has proven vulnerable in that department even against a joke of a schedule.
Give me the road pups here in what I think is an overinflated line. Last year's final score between these two would certainly work when Navy came out on top, 14-0, despite each team gaining exactly 265 total yards.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Navy has gone just 5-13 ATS (27.8%) as a two-touchdown plus favorite against FBS competition.
Projection: Charlotte +14
Pick: Charlotte +16 or Better
 |  | |
Western Michigan -1 at Buffalo
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I think this is a good time to sell the Bulls after they pulled off their second straight MAC win as double-digit underdogs.
While a bit better than expected, they really benefited from catching both Northern Illinois (following the Notre Dame upset) and Toledo (following the MAC title revenge victory over Miami Ohio) at the perfect times.
I also just don't think very highly of this year's Rockets team, so I wasn't surprised to see the outright upset as I mentioned in last week's piece. Also keep in mind that NIU outgained Buffalo, 359-184, in that loss earlier this season.
Buffalo still has one of the worst offenses in the country, ranking dead last in Success Rate. Therefore, I can't envision the Bulls — who have the nation's worst passing attack from an EPA perspective — fully exploiting a Broncos defense that certainly has holes, especially in coverage.
On the other side of the ball, Western Michigan is now fully healthy on offense after dealing with a few key injuries to its best players over the first month-and-a-half of the season.
Despite those, it still had the ball inside the 10-yard line with a chance to tie the game at Marshall in the final minute and actually led Wisconsin in Madison in the fourth quarter before a game-changing muffed punt.
With Jalen Buckley now healthy, the Broncos have a dynamic duo in the backfield with him and Jaden Nixon.
The massive WMU offensive line, anchored by All-MAC candidates Jacob Gideon at center and Addison West at guard, should absolutely dominate at the line of scrimmage against an extremely undersized Buffalo defensive line.
The Bulls do have the best linebacker duo in the league with Red Murdock and Shaun Dolac, who will clean up everything on the second level. However, the Broncos should have no issues getting consistent yards on the ground, which should lead to extremely manageable third-down distances.
Buffalo is much more vulnerable against the run, which Toledo simply couldn't exploit last week with its anemic rushing attack.
The Broncos are now not only fully healthy at running back and along the offensive line, but also at wide receiver, which could prove problematic for a Buffalo secondary that could be shorthanded after last weekend.
Home-field advantage is pretty non-existent in the MAC, so I'm happy to back the road Broncos here since I haven't wavered on my preseason belief that they are at least a field goal better than the home Bulls.
Plus, I like some matchups on both sides of the ball.
Notable Nugget
MAC home teams in league play have covered at just a 45% clip (-11.9% ROI) over the past 20 seasons.
Projection:Western Michigan -3
Pick: Western Michigan -1 or Better
| | |
Maryland +7.5 vs. USC
4 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is a tough situational spot for the Trojans, who have to be a bit deflated after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Minnesota and most recently Penn State in overtime in a game they led by two touchdowns.
Combine those with another close loss at Michigan, and USC has basically no hope of reaching the College Football Playoff or winning the Big Ten in its inaugural year.
Will Lincoln Riley's bunch respond in a brutal travel spot across the country in College Park? I'll pay to make them prove they can get off the mat.
The Trojans are a bruised and battered bunch (potentially emotionally as well) after a brutal schedule to start the year.
I'm also buying low on the Terps — who will benefit from an extra day of rest and preparation for their second straight home game — after their embarrassing home loss against Northwestern last Friday night. In fairness, that loss had a lot to do with a -4 turnover margin
Prior to last week, quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. had been playing extremely well and will now benefit from facing a USC defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
The defensive line also isn't an overwhelming unit, which should help out a pretty subpar Maryland offensive line.
The Trojans excel at limiting explosive passing plays, but that hasn't really been an integral part of the Maryland offense this season.
The Terps should find success with an efficient passing attack — led by Kaden Prather and Tai Felton — and by hitting some explosive runs with Roman Hemby against a banged-up USC defense that also has some looming negative late-down regression.
Already without linebacker Eric Gentry, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks through four games before his injury, the Trojans have now lost starting defensive end Anthony Lucas for the season. Lucas, who leads the team in total pressures, will be sorely missed in this particular matchup.
On the other side of the ball, Maryland's struggling secondary has failed miserably in terms of limiting explosive passing plays, but those have been sorely lacking from USC.
Maryland's strength on defense lies in its front seven, which should help limit running back Woody Marks and create Havoc against an extremely vulnerable USC offensive line, especially at both tackle spots.
Miller Moss has also regressed a bit since an outstanding opener against LSU. In the five games since, he's thrown 10 touchdowns to five interceptions but has only four big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. In comparison, Edwards owns a 19-6 ratio — albeit against a much easier schedule of opposing defenses.
USC does have a much better overall staff, which scares me a bit, but this is as tricky of a situational spot as you'll find on the board this week. I had to take 7.5 in a game I project slightly lower than a touchdown from a power-ratings perspective.
Notable Nugget
USC — just 44-60-2 ATS on the road overall since 2005 – is 0-10 SU (and 1-9 ATS) in the eastern or central time zones since 2011. This will mark their first game on the East Coast since losing outright as 17-point favorites at Boston College in 2014.
Projection: Maryland +6.4
Pick: Maryland +7 or Better
