Bengals vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 22, 2023
Bengals at Bills
8:00 pm • CBSBengals at Bills Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Bengals 4-5 | +5.5-105 | o48.5-110 | +200 | |
Bills 7-2 | -5.5-115 | u48.5-110 | -255 |
Sunday 8:00 p.m.
January 22, 2023Highmark StadiumOrchard Park
Bengals vs. Bills Expert Picks
Capper Central
623d ago
Last 30d: 61-68-0 (-24.3u)
BUF -5.5-115
$150.00
The Degenerates
652d ago
Last 30d: 54-47-1 (+4.7u)
Over 48.5-110
1.1u
Charlie DiSturco
653d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
Over 50.5 (Live)-110
0.55u
Small for snowver. Feed me 24-24
Stuck 🚨
653d ago
Last 30d: 57-51-1 (-1.1u)
Over 50.5 (Live)-110
0.2u
Think we can get this tied at 24 at min. Hopefully bills get a brain at half
Matthew Vincenzi
653d ago
Last 30d: 25-39-1 (-20.3u)
BUF -5 (2H)-105
1.05u
Collin Wilson
653d ago
Last 30d: 67-56-3 (+5.0u)
BUF +3.5 (Live)-115
1.15u
Stuck 🚨
653d ago
Last 30d: 57-51-1 (-1.1u)
BUF +3.5 (Live)-110
0.1u
Live alert
Sean Zerillo
653d ago
Last 30d: 79-99-3 (-9.9u)
BUF +3.5 (Live)-110
0.28u
CZR. Half middle shot
Will Brinson
653d ago
Last 30d: 13-8-1 (+4.9u)
CIN +105 (Live)
1.05u
Sean Zerillo
653d ago
Last 30d: 79-99-3 (-9.9u)
Under 53.5 (Live)-115
0.25u
https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016056&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149
Stuck 🚨
653d ago
Last 30d: 57-51-1 (-1.1u)
Over 48.5 (Live)-110
0.1u
Just logging the snowver
Promo Guy
653d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+175
0.35u
Dk boost
Prop Bet Guy
653d ago
Last 30d: 100-81-0 (+8.7u)
H.Hurst u15.5 Longest Reception-120
1.2u
BetMGM. Under in 7/14, but this is a brutal matchup. Bills are #1 vs TEs in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and allowed the least yards per reception to the position.
Technically, Hurst did clear this line in the 1Q vs BUF in the cancelled game, but I’m back on this today. Cinci is depleted on the O-Line and Hurst could be relied on to help block/chip before he runs his routes.
Sean Zerillo
653d ago
Last 30d: 79-99-3 (-9.9u)
CIN +6-110
0.5u
CZR
Jeremiah Rose
653d ago
Last 30d: 36-41-0 (-1.2u)
S.Perine o1.5 Recs-172
0.47u
Boyd
Chase Holden
653d ago
Last 30d: 21-48-0 (-14.4u)
Over 48.5-110
1.5u
Obsessed with this pick.
YBK Picks.com
653d ago
Last 30d: 47-53-1 (-16.8u)
BUF -5.5-105
3.15u
Dale Tanhardt
653d ago
Last 30d: 16-57-0 (+30.1u)
J.Allen First Touchdown Scorer+950
0.4u
T.Boyd First Touchdown Scorer+2000
0.15u
T.Higgins First Touchdown Scorer+1500
0.2u
T.Higgins 2+ TDs+1900
0.4u
T.Boyd 2+ TDs+3000
0.2u
J.Burrow o36.5 Longest Completion-120
1.8u
#69WithDale
Charlie DiSturco
653d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
S.Perine o10.5 Rec Yds-120
1u
Popped up back at PB. @The_Oddsmaker
Sandy Plashkes
653d ago
Last 30d: 105-119-0 (-11.1u)
Under 48.5-110
$50.00
BUF -5.5-110
$55.00
Charlie DiSturco
653d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
J.Allen o47.5 Rush Yds-110
1.1u
Gilles Gallant
653d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
T.Higgins Anytime TD Scorer+200
1u
Bet at FanDuel. Would still play at +190.
Joe Dellera
653d ago
Last 30d: 54-66-1 (-4.8u)
S.Diggs o79.5 Rec Yds-125
0.2u
Brandon Anderson
653d ago
Last 30d: 37-68-0 (-0.8u)
CIN +3.5+130
1.61u
Taking advantage of the line move to buy out of my early Hot Read position at a small profit. I just feel uneasy about this game and don’t love getting such a high variance team over a FG in a game that feels like it'll come down to the final drive with the two elite qbs.
Feels like the best value right now is on Bengals 6 and especially 200+ ML, and I don't want to try to middle so I'll just walk with a small 4% profit.
Mjaybrod
653d ago
Last 30d: 113-127-0 (-4.6u)
J.Allen o7.5 Rush Att-114
1.75u
Jeremiah Rose
653d ago
Last 30d: 36-41-0 (-1.2u)
CIN +7-145
0.69u
MGM
Matthew Freedman
653d ago
Last 30d: 2-2-0 (+0.0u)
CIN +6-110
1u
Circa: Joe Burrow on the road. Joe Burrow as an underdog. Joe Burrow.
Mjaybrod
653d ago
Last 30d: 113-127-0 (-4.6u)
BUF -5.5-112
2u
Prop Bet Guy
653d ago
Last 30d: 100-81-0 (+8.7u)
J.Allen o7.5 Rush Att-139
1u
Caesers. Close/big game Josh Allen rushing narrative. 9/13 on this line in games decided by 2 scores or less. Missed last week, but did turn the ball over 3 times in opposing territory. We should see more designed runs in the red zone.
Stuck 🚨
653d ago
Last 30d: 57-51-1 (-1.1u)
S.Perine o12.5 Rec Yds-113
0.18u
Small play h/t @The_Oddsmaker
Chris Meaney
654d ago
Last 30d: 11-10-0 (-1.3u)
J.Allen o47.5 Rush Yds-114
1.14u
S.Diggs o6.5 Recs+110
1u
Simon Hunter
654d ago
Last 30d: 25-29-1 (-7.8u)
BUF -6-112
1u
Under 49-107
0.93u
The Touchdown Show
654d ago
Last 30d: 11-40-0 (+8.8u)
D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+225
1u
#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000
Convince Me
654d ago
Last 30d: 30-28-1 (-1.9u)
S.Perine o12.5 Rec Yds-119
0.84u
#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker
D.Singletary u39.5 Rush Yds-115
0.87u
#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon
BUF -5.5-112
1u
#simonhunter @SimonHunterNFL
Jeremiah Rose
654d ago
Last 30d: 36-41-0 (-1.2u)
J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+125
0.31u
Boyd
J.Chase o7.5 Recs+110
1u
MGM
J.Chase o80 Rec Yds-130
0.6u
Boyd
Prop Bomb 🏝
654d ago
Last 30d: 11-9-0 (+1.8u)
J.Burrow o25.5 Pass Comp-125
1.25u
Wynn: Bengals' O-Line are w/o starters L. Collins, A. Cappa, & J. Williams. Should create pressured drawbacks where short high-% targets are needed to move the chains. Mixon, Hurst, Chase, Boyd, & Higgins are his options. #PlayerProps
Greg Matherne
654d ago
Last 30d: 23-45-0 (-15.0u)
J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+130
$162.50
Chris Meaney
654d ago
Last 30d: 11-10-0 (-1.3u)
J.Burrow o1.5 Pass TDs-120
1u
Sean Koerner
655d ago
Last 30d: 33-29-0 (+0.4u)
S.Perine o10.5 Rec Yds-120
1u
FD: see my props piece for full analysis
Quickslip link: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359705955&selectionId[0]=15499370&shareBetId=10023_-443033149
Action Pod NFL Picks
655d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
BUF -5-112
1.12u
Luke / VegasRefund Best Bet
D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+210
1u
Gallant best bet
J.Allen o42.5 Rush Yds-115
1.15u
Anderson Best Bet
Sunday Six Pack
655d ago
Last 30d: 8-21-1 (-15.4u)
D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-110
1u
Raybon 1
BUF -5.5-112
1.12u
Stuckey 1
The Favorites Podcast
655d ago
Last 30d: 6-13-1 (-8.3u)
BUF -4.5-112
1.12u
Foxhole
Nick Giffen
655d ago
Last 30d: 47-113-2 (-11.1u)
J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+130
1.3u
At DK: Project fair around +120
Tanner McGrath
655d ago
Last 30d: 57-68-5 (-19.6u)
BUF -5.5-110
0.55u
Taking off half cuz I wanna reduce my exposure on Cinci
BUF -250
0.5u
Taking off half cuz I wanna reduce my exposure on Cinci
Green Dot Daily
655d ago
Last 30d: 63-84-0 (-10.9u)
D.Singletary u40.5 Rush Yds-110
0.91u
@ChrisRaybon
BUF -5.5-110
1u
@Stuckey2
Gilles Gallant
655d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
T.Boyd Anytime TD Scorer+320
1u
Bet at FanDuel. WR is the angle you want to play for Bengals TD scorers. Boyd scored in W17 matchup that was cut short. Chase/Higgins command so much attention. May bet Higgins too if its above +200 but Boyd is my fave Bengal.
Green Dot Daily
656d ago
Last 30d: 63-84-0 (-10.9u)
D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-120
0.83u
#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner
656d ago
Last 30d: 33-29-0 (+0.4u)
D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-125
1u
DK: giving out on Green Dot Daily right now
Charlie DiSturco
656d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-110
1u
Nick Martin
656d ago
Last 30d: 138-223-1 (+4.3u)
J.Allen o46.5 Rush Yds-110
0.75u
Bet365 11:11 am EST Thursday.
Gilles Gallant
656d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+225
1u
Bet at PointsBet. Over +200 = Autobet. During regular season and playoffs, he’s been above +200 in 9 games and scored in 6 of them. Has scored 5 TD in 7 career playoff games and 4/5 home playoff games. Cinci isnt a great matchup for TE but Knox is my Ryde or Die.
Chris Raybon
656d ago
Last 30d: 18-18-1 (-2.3u)
D.Singletary u45.5 Rush Yds-115
0.87u
Out-carried 9-7 and 12-10 by Cook last 2 weeks. CIN allowing 3.7 YPC with Reader, 4.2 without.
Joe Dellera
656d ago
Last 30d: 54-66-1 (-4.8u)
CIN +6-120
0.38u
J.Allen o59.5 Rush Yds+280
0.15u
J.Allen o42.5 Rush Yds-110
1u
Via @wheatonbrando
Brandon Anderson
656d ago
Last 30d: 37-68-0 (-0.8u)
J.Allen o74.5 Rush Yds+600
0.35u
one more escalator nibble. 70+ 5x this year, 66+ in 4/7 playoff games and 75+ x2. PB
J.Allen o59.5 Rush Yds+280
0.75u
Allen escalator SZN. 60+ in 8/18 games vs playoff teams last 2 years, almost half. 54+ in 5/7 career playoff games, avg 56. The actual line should be closer to 55, so 60+ should be more like +125 or 150, half this.
J.Allen o40.5 Rush Yds-110
2.5u
Terrible line, they're gonna regret this. Old faithful in big Bills games. They save Allen's legs for the big ones, both scrambles and designed runs. Numbers speak for themselves:
18g last 2yrs vs non-playoff teams: 5.7 rushes for 37yds
18g last 2yrs vs playoff: 9.4 for 60, 44+ in 13 (72%)
Bengals bottom 5 vs designed QB runs too. You already know- it's escalator SZN. Don’t wait around, this line will definitely rise to 45-50 by kickoff. 54+ in 5/7 playoff games. Just a bad line.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson
Tanner McGrath
656d ago
Last 30d: 57-68-5 (-19.6u)
CIN +5.5-110
1u
CIN +210
1.05u
Collin Wilson
658d ago
Last 30d: 67-56-3 (+5.0u)
Under 49-110
1u
Both pass defenses top 9 coverage per PFF, 9th/12th defensive pass DVOA. Cincy OL to deal with a Bulls front that is 6th highest in pressure. Buffalo allows just 1.4 RZ attempts per game
Chad Millman
658d ago
Last 30d: 25-30-1 (-4.8u)
BUF -4.5-114
1u
@SimonHunterNFL foxhole pick from the faves pod. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016054&selectionId[0]=50203&shareBetId=10023_-443033149
Jim Sannes
658d ago
Last 30d: 13-31-0 (-6.2u)
CIN +196
0.49u
Scaling this with my spread bet on the Bengals to get a bit more upside. My model puts the Bengals' win odds above 40%, and they're at 34.0% implied here. They get downgraded with the o-line banged up, but they played well even while Ja'Marr Chase was out earlier in the year. With a full week to prepare for their deficiencies, I have faith in the Bengals to figure it out, allowing me to take the discount on the moneyline.
CIN +5-110
0.68u
Splitting this a bit to get action on both the moneyline and the spread. This is after accounting for offensive line injuries in Cincinnati. I can't push this spread longer than a field goal, given how well the offense has played even while dealing with injuries to guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It's also easy to forget that the Bills sputtered a bit on offense against the Dolphins and play a high-variance brand of football. I just think this game is closer than the market is saying, which leads to three different bets in the same game.
Under 50.5-110
0.91u
Couple things play into this. First, I'm expecting a tighter game, which correlates with an under. Second, there are currently projected to be 14 mile-per-hour winds on Sunday with a 40% chance of snow. I don't care as much about the snow as I do the wind, which pushes things down, even though the Bills have played well through wind plenty of times this year. With the possibility for the total to slide down as the forecast becomes more clear, I'm looking to lock this one in now.
Matthew Vincenzi
658d ago
Last 30d: 25-39-1 (-20.3u)
BUF -5-110
1.1u
Jeremiah Rose
659d ago
Last 30d: 36-41-0 (-1.2u)
Over 50-110
0.5u
Circa
Chris Meaney
659d ago
Last 30d: 11-10-0 (-1.3u)
CIN +4-110
1u
Brandon Anderson
659d ago
Last 30d: 37-68-0 (-0.8u)
BUF -3.5-110
1.5u
Divisional Round Hot Read!
Line doesn't make any sense. Buffalo has real home field advantage especially in this of all games, crowd will be bonkers. So that means Buffalo is like 1 better on a neutral field? with the clearly better D, ST, coach?
Bengals likely missing both tackles and RG on line pending Jonah/Cappa health. Also bit of worry on Eli Apple who was in and out a bit, with Awuzie already out. Also Hyde could be back. Any of that injury stuff could move the line significantly, all away from 0.
Maybe this is just gonna end up a field goal game but I liked Buffalo +1 in Cincy and the health gap has widened since so gotta like this.
Maybe this drops to 3 but I don’t see it. Much more risk of it rising.
Bengals vs. Bills Previews & Analysis
Bengals vs. Bills Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Bengals vs. Bills Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Bills are 1-1 in their last 5 games.
- Bills are 1-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Bills are 3-2 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' last 2 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' 2 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Bengals vs. Bills Injury Updates
Bengals Injuries
- Orlando BrownT
Brown is out with knee
Out
- Tee HigginsWR
Higgins is questionable with quad
Questionable
- Zack MossRB
Moss is out with neck
Out
- Charlie JonesWR
Jones is out with groin
Out
- Erick AllTE
All is out with knee
Out
Bills Injuries
- Amari CooperWR
Cooper is questionable with wrist
Questionable
- Reggie GilliamFB
Gilliam is out with hip
Out
- Christian BenfordCB
Benford is out with wrist
Out
- Keon ColemanWR
Coleman is questionable with wrist
Questionable
- DeWayne CarterDT
Carter is out with wrist
Out
Team Stats
Bengals vs. Bills Odds Comparison
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Bengals at Bills Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Bengals 4-5 | o20.5-125 | u20.5-105 |
Bills 7-2 | o28-102 | u28-122 |