Dolphins vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 15, 2023

Dolphins at Bills

6:00 pm • CBS

Miami Dolphins

4-6

31 - 34

Buffalo Bills

9-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dolphins 4-6	+14-107	o44.5-108	+660
Bills 9-2	-14-114	u44.5-111	-950

Sunday 6:00 p.m.

January 15, 2023

Highmark StadiumOrchard Park

BUF -14-114

BUF o14 (1H)-160

0.63u

M.Gesicki o16.5 Rec Yds-133

d.knox anytime td scorer+205

4.1u

BUF -13.5-110

3.3u

BUF -320 (Live)

0.31u

Boyd

BUF -7 (2H)-110

3.3u

BUF -7 (Live)-110

1.1u

Under 44.5-110

$55.00

M.Gesicki o18.5 Rec Yds-120

0.6u

M.Gesicki Anytime TD Scorer+530

0.53u

Some couch change action for shits in first game

Over 44-110

1.36u

Overs have been good so far in the NFL Playoffs. This is one that my guy Ricky Stenhouse is riding as well. So I had to go in on it with me recommending the play.

C.Beasley Anytime TD Scorer+1200

1.2u

Freebet

K.Shakir Anytime TD Scorer+750

0.1u

Mgm

M.Gesicki o1.5 Recs-140

MGM: Worth the juice. BUF is tough matchup for TEs but love this for game-script and involvement reasonings. Logged B2B 20+ routes run games after going under from Week 13-16. He also has 27, 34, 25, & 20 routes ran w/o Tua. #PlayerProps

S.Thompson Anytime TD Scorer+1200

0.5u

At FD: Skylar at double digits

C.Beasley Anytime TD Scorer+1200

At DK: Mckenzie out, they may trust the vet

BUF -14-105

2.1u

BUF -14-114

0.5u

M.Gesicki o17.5 Rec Yds-120

0.6u

J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer+125

1.25u

#69WithDale

M.Gesicki o16.5 Rec Yds-120

1.2u

@The_Oddsmaker

BUF -7.5 (1H)-105

1.05u

M.Gesicki o16.5 Rec Yds-120

1.2u

BetMGM: Gesicki has faired much better w/ Skylar Thompson under center this year. He’s only cleared this number in 6 of 13 games, averaging just 15 yards with Tua under center. He’s cleared this in all four Skylar/Teddy games, averaging 40 yards a game. The underlying data suggests that McDaniel makes Gesicki a bigger part of the game plan when Tua is out as his routes run rate jumps from 46% (in Tua starts) to 66% in Skylar/Teddy games. I’m projecting his median closer to 22.5 and love his upside in what should be a game the Dolphins end up in a trailing, pass heavy game script.

J.Allen o255.5 Pass Yds-110

0.45u

103 att for 704 yards & 6 TDs first 2 Miami games. over his posted line of 33.5 attempts in both Miami games and in five of six playoff games, and he’s over 255.5 yards by the same counts. I’ll play the yards over in case Buffalo piles it on early and Allen’s attempts are limited by garbage time.

BUF -13.5-110

0.5u

Miami's offense is broke without its timing. No Tua has dropped them from 3 to 21st DVOA and just 16ppg. Don’t have the firepower to keep up with Skylar road playoff debut. Going lite because Buffalo emotions still an unknown but no reason the Bills should do anything but coast. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-wild-card-picks-bets-on-spreads-totals-player-props-for-all-6-games?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

BUF -13-115

1.15u

Big Balls Bet of the Week

BUF o14 (1H)-125

Raybon 2

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+220

2.2u

Gilles gallant best bet

BUF o14 (1H)-120

0.83u

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+220

2.2u

At FD: Analysis on @TheTDShow on Sunday

BUF o14 (1H)+105

1.05u

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

BUF -12.5-110

1.1u

BUF -10.5-110

1.1u

No Tua, Skyler Thompson preparing to start…

BUF -10-110

0.25u

BUF -11-110

BUF -9-110

1.1u

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+220

2.2u

Bet at FanDuel. TD in 4 straight games. Dolphins gave up 10 TD to TE this season, 3rd-worst in NFL. Over +200 is an auto-bet for me. Use Quickslip with FanDuel if you want to tail: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.358088368&selectionId%5B0%5D=23736047&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

J.Waddle Anytime TD Scorer+260

Bet at Bet365. Down to +230 at FD and +175 at DK. Like Waddle even without Tua but if he plays, this prop will drop closer to +200.

BUF -10.5-110

0.55u

betting every wildcard game because

BUF -10-115

2.3u

BUF -9.5-110

1.25u

Bet365 5:18 pm EST Sunday Jan 8th.

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NFL Public Betting

Bills are 1-1 in their last 5 games.
Bills are 1-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bills are 4-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' last 2 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	1-1	1-1	4-2	1-1	1-2
Dolphins	0-1	1-4	0-1	2-4	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bills	2-0	2-0	2-4	2-0	0-3
Dolphins	0-1	3-2	0-1	3-3	0-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	1-1	N/A	4-2	1-1	1-2
Dolphins	0-1	2-3	N/A	3-3	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 8th	NE	W 35-23	-8.5 W	O 44	BUF -405
Dec 24th	@CHI	W 35-13	-8.5 W	O 40.5	BUF -400
Dec 18th	MIA	W 32-29	-7 L	O 44.5	BUF -350
Dec 11th	NYJ	W 20-12	-9.5 L	U 43.5	BUF -460
Dec 2nd	@NE	W 24-10	-3.5 W	U 43.5	BUF -200

Jordan Phillips
DT
Phillips is out with wrist
Out

Amari Cooper
WR
Cooper is questionable with wrist
Questionable
Matt Milano
LB
Milano is out with biceps
Out
Spencer Brown
T
Brown is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Baylon Spector
LB
Spector is questionable with calf
Questionable
Dalton Kincaid
TE
Kincaid is out with knee
Out
Keon Coleman
WR
Coleman is out with wrist
Out
DeWayne Carter
DT
Carter is out with wrist
Out

Kendall Fuller
CB
Fuller is out with concussion
Out
Isaiah Wynn
OL
Wynn is questionable with quad
Questionable
Alec Ingold
FB
Ingold is questionable with calf
Questionable
Austin Jackson
OL
Jackson is out with knee
Out
Robert Jones
OL
Jones is questionable with knee
Questionable
Patrick McMorris
DB
McMorris is questionable with calf
Questionable

See more NFL Injuries

Dolphins

Total

Bills

231

Total Yards

423

Total Plays

3.3

Yards Per Play

5.9

Dolphins

Passing

Bills

220

YDS

352

18/45

Comps/Atts

23/39

3.857

YPA

6.87

1/2

TDs/INTs

3/2

4/31

Sacks/Yards

7/36

Dolphins

Rushing

Bills

Rush Yards

107

Attempts

2.1

YPC

4.115

TDs

Dolphins

Turnovers

Bills

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Dolphins

Efficiency

Bills

2/4 50%

Redzone

3/4 75%

4/16 0%

3rd Down

9/16 0%

1/2 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Dolphins

First Downs

Bills

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Dolphins

Misc

Bills

7/34

Penalties/Yards

2/13

27:47

Possession

32:13

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See more NFL Odds

MatchupOverUnder
Dolphins 4-6	o14.5-105	u14.5-120
Bills 9-2	o28.5-130	u28.5-110

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 15, 2023

Dolphins at Bills

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Bills

Dolphins at Bills Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

Dolphins vs. Bills Previews & Analysis

How We're Live Betting the Wild Card Round on Sunday

Anderson's Picks for Every NFL Wild Card Round Game

Gallant's 2 Anytime TD Picks for Dolphins vs Bills

5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Bills

Dolphins vs. Bills Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Dolphins vs. Bills Public Betting Percentages

Dolphins

Public

Bills

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Bills vs. Dolphins Injury Updates

Bills Injuries

Dolphins Injuries

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds Comparison

Dolphins at Bills Team Totals