Chiefs vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 25, 2024
Chiefs at Steelers
6:00 pm • NetflixChiefs at Steelers Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs 14-1 | -6 | -2-110 | o46-110 | -130 |
Steelers 10-5 | u42 | +2-110 | u46-110 | +110 |
Wednesday 6:00 p.m.
December 25, 2024Acrisure StadiumPittsburgh
Chiefs vs. Steelers Expert Picks
Mjaybrod
2h ago
Last 30d: 154-139-0 (+14.1u)
PIT +6.5 (Live)-110
0.5u
Stomach flu on xmas is fun
Boomer Betz
3h ago
Last 30d: 139-131-8 (+20.8u)
Under 45.5 (Live)-104
0.96u
JB Bets
3h ago
Last 30d: 36-13-0 (+16.6u)
P.Freiermuth o28.5 Rec Yds (Live)-113
0.88u
Ladder complete for VIP! Use code Christmas for a free month🫡
P.Freiermuth o24.5 Rec Yds (Live)-145
0.69u
Pat yards 🪜 for VIP was free
P.Freiermuth o19.5 Rec Yds (Live)-180
1.11u
USE CODE CHRISTMAS FOR 1 MONTH OF VIP FOR FREE
Ryan Sura
3h ago
Last 30d: 97-107-6 (-17.1u)
PIT +10 (Live)-130
1.3u
Geoff aka OldManWhoBets
4h ago
Last 30d: 26-15-0 (+4.3u)
PIT +2.5-115
0.5u
FD
Action Network Luck Rankings
5h ago
Last 30d: 8-6-0 (+1.3u)
Over 46.5-110
1u
Shady Biev
6h ago
Last 30d: 179-208-7 (+8.9u)
Over 45.5-109
1.64u
N.Harris First Touchdown Scorer Yes+750
0.5u
PvB Bets
6h ago
Last 30d: 24-29-0 (-6.6u)
M.Williams u1.5 Recs-105
0.95u
M. Williams ⬇️ 1.5 Reception (-105 @ BetRivers)
THE BLITZ 📽️: 1.07 Recs
Mike Williams' outlook against the Kansas City Chiefs is limited, especially with George Pickens returning to the lineup. Williams has benefited from Pickens' absence, recording at least three catches in two of the last three games and 15+ receiving yards in each. However, when Pickens has been active, Williams has been a non-factor, going without a reception or target in three consecutive games.
Kansas City’s defensive strengths further dampen Williams’ potential. The Chiefs are far more vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the most slot receiving yards (1,523), highest catch rate (78.3%), and most end-zone targets (20) this season. Unfortunately for Williams, he primarily plays on the outside, where the Chiefs’ coverage has been more reliable. Kansas City’s ability to limit boundary receivers, combined with Pittsburgh's likely emphasis on Pickens and Calvin Austin III, makes Williams a long shot to contribute meaningfully.
Williams is a risky proposition for any receiving props, particularly with a likely reduction in snap count and targets. I'm looking to fade him here.
M.Brown u3.5 Recs+112
1u
M. Brown ⬇️ 3.5 Receptions (+112 @ FanDuel)
Hollywood Brown had an efficient debut for Kansas City, posting 5 receptions for 45 yards on 8 targets despite playing just 27% of snaps. While his production on such a limited snap share was impressive, it’s unsustainable without a significant increase in playing time.
Heading into this matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s unlikely that Brown will see a substantial jump in usage, as he’s projected to remain below a 35% snap share. This sets up as a strong spot for potential regression.
The Steelers’ defense is a tougher matchup for wide receivers, and both teams favor clock-controlling strategies with the run game and short passing attacks. These factors further limit Brown’s opportunities to replicate his debut production. Pittsburgh’s ability to pressure the quarterback and disrupt timing routes could also reduce the efficiency of Kansas City’s passing game, particularly for a receiver like Brown who relies on speed and deep-route execution.
YBK Picks.com
6h ago
Last 30d: 40-43-2 (-12.0u)
Over 45-105
2u
PvB Bets
6h ago
Last 30d: 24-29-0 (-6.6u)
J.Warren o2.5 Recs-132
0.76u
J. Warren ⬆️ 2.5 Receptions (-132 @ FanDuel)
THE BLITZ 📽️: 2.93 Recs
We’re getting solid value at -132 on this prop compared to other books:
MGM: -155
Caesars: -160
DraftKings: -150
Hard Rock: -165
BetRivers: -165
Pinnacle: -148
The disparity highlights a clear +EV opportunity, as most books have adjusted this line to reflect Warren’s increasing role and reliability in the passing game.
Supporting Metrics:
**1. Snap Share Growth:**
Warren’s snap share has risen steadily over the last four weeks, hitting 67% in his most recent game. He has firmly established himself as the more dynamic option compared to Najee Harris, particularly in situations requiring pass-catching. This consistent growth in playing time suggests increased opportunities for receptions.
**2. Consistency in Production:**
Warren has recorded 2+ receptions in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.8 catches per game over that span. Even in games where Pittsburgh’s passing attack has been subpar, Warren has been a reliable outlet for check-downs and designed screens.
**3. Quarterback Tendencies:**
Russell Wilson's 11.6% check-down rate is the 4th highest among QBs with 250+ dropbacks. This tendency to utilize short passes, especially under pressure, bodes well for Warren’s role as a safety valve, particularly against a strong KC defense.
**4. Matchup Considerations:**
While the Chiefs have been excellent against running backs in the passing game (allowing the 3rd fewest receptions to the position), game script could force Pittsburgh into more passing situations. The Steelers are 6-point underdogs, making it likely they’ll need to rely on the passing game in the second half, increasing Warren’s chances of clearing this line.
💰🦡 Jake
6h ago
Last 30d: 77-89-1 (-24.9u)
I.Pacheco o41.5 Rush Yds-115
1.15u
R.Wilson o36.5 Longest Completion-115
1u
Invisible Insider
6h ago
Last 30d: 10-6-1 (+2.7u)
PIT +2.5-102
0.5u
MERRY CHRISTMAS!🎁
Mjaybrod
7h ago
Last 30d: 154-139-0 (+14.1u)
PIT o21.5 Team Total-105
1u
KC hasn’t allowed 22 in L4 - Steelers under L2
The Propfessor
7h ago
Last 30d: 48-37-0 (+6.7u)
X.Worthy o4.5 Recs-115
1u
Brian Bitler
7h ago
Last 30d: 87-77-2 (+20.9u)
PIT +2.5-105
3u
Chris Gimino
7h ago
Last 30d: 18-12-0 (+5.2u)
C.Austin o2.5 Recs+110
1.1u
Brian Bitler
9h ago
Last 30d: 87-77-2 (+20.9u)
PIT +2.5+100
3u
Kyle Murray
13h ago
Last 30d: 55-66-1 (-14.0u)
Under 44-110
1u
J.Warren u8.5 Rush Att+110
1u
M.Brown u43.5 Rec Yds-110
1.1u
Roger Goodell
16h ago
Last 30d: 22-15-0 (+6.0u)
G.Pickens o64.5 Rec Yds-110
0.55u
Markus Markets
19h ago
Last 30d: 66-73-1 (+10.9u)
C.Austin o26.5 Rec Yds-110
0.91u
Bet365
Sandy Plashkes
21h ago
Last 30d: 113-115-3 (+5.1u)
PIT +130
1u
P.Mahomes u256.5 Pass Yds-112
1.12u
Allan Lem
21h ago
Last 30d: 36-23-1 (+5.7u)
N.Gray o14.5 Rec Yds-115
0.58u
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Gilles Gallant
21h ago
Last 30d: 33-70-0 (+1.7u)
N.Gray o14.5 Rec Yds-110
0.55u
#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner
21h ago
Last 30d: 32-20-1 (+9.6u)
N.Gray o14.5 Rec Yds-115
1.15u
Rocket Plays
23h ago
Last 30d: 59-92-1 (+18.2u)
S.Perine o9.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Picks Office
1d ago
Last 30d: 118-98-5 (+13.2u)
KC -2.5-110
1.82u
Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, aiming for AFC's top seed, face the Steelers after five straight wins, showcasing zero turnovers and offensive efficiency. Mahomes, despite an ankle issue, leads with 3,608 yards. Pittsburgh, reeling from a Ravens loss, struggles with turnovers and a weak run game. Kansas City's defense and offensive firepower make them favorites, while the Steelers lack consistency to compete.
Ryan Sura
1d ago
Last 30d: 97-107-6 (-17.1u)
P.Mahomes u255.5 Pass Yds-115
1.15u
Matt Moore
1d ago
Last 30d: 87-107-2 (-5.4u)
PIT +135
0.55u
Boomer Betz
1d ago
Last 30d: 139-131-8 (+20.8u)
Under 44+100
1u
Prophetx
Roger Goodell
1d ago
Last 30d: 22-15-0 (+6.0u)
Under 43.5-110
0.5u
The Propfessor
1d ago
Last 30d: 48-37-0 (+6.7u)
C.Austin o24.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Anders
1d ago
Last 30d: 17-26-0 (-8.6u)
PIT +3-115
1.15u
Textbook Tomlin spot… Christmas Card will be up on Twitter @Anderspicks. Merry Christmas to all🫡
Royals Props
1d ago
Last 30d: 54-57-1 (-9.1u)
N.Bolton o6.5 Tackles + Ast-130
1u
DK
Ryan Sura
1d ago
Last 30d: 97-107-6 (-17.1u)
PIT +3-120
1.8u
Stuck 🚨
1d ago
Last 30d: 62-55-2 (+0.7u)
PIT +3-115
0.55u
Shady Biev
1d ago
Last 30d: 179-208-7 (+8.9u)
N.Harris Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155
1.5u
X.Worthy Anytime TD Scorer Yes+250
2.5u
PIT +3-115
2.3u
Simon Hunter
1d ago
Last 30d: 21-24-3 (-2.2u)
KC -2.5-115
0.87u
The Touchdown Show
2d ago
Last 30d: 12-34-1 (+3.5u)
D.Hopkins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+280
1u
@GDAWG5000 and @TheBMatt
P.Freiermuth Anytime TD Scorer Yes+290
1u
@GDAWG5000 and @TheBMatt
Convince Me
2d ago
Last 30d: 28-36-2 (-9.5u)
Over 43-110
1u
@The_Oddsmaker and @nick_giffen
KC -2.5-115
0.87u
@SimonHunterNFL
N.Gray Anytime TD Scorer Yes+360
0.5u
@ChrisRaybon
Brian Matthews
2d ago
Last 30d: 7-14-0 (-0.3u)
D.Hopkins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+280
0.5u
P.Freiermuth Anytime TD Scorer Yes+340
0.5u
Gilles Gallant
2d ago
Last 30d: 33-70-0 (+1.7u)
D.Hopkins Anytime TD Scorer Yes+280
1u
P.Freiermuth Anytime TD Scorer Yes+330
1u
Chad Millman
2d ago
Last 30d: 19-25-1 (-4.3u)
Over 43-110
0.75u
Nick Giffen
2d ago
Last 30d: 47-59-0 (+25.5u)
Over 43-110
1.1u
#LuckOver
Jim Sannes
2d ago
Last 30d: 11-17-0 (-5.8u)
Over 43.5-105
1u
Have this total at 45.2 because of how well the Chiefs have played as they have gotten competent pass-catchers around Mahomes.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
2d ago
Last 30d: 280-270-8 (-5.8u)
G.Pickens u64.5 Rec Yds-110
0.45u
4.39% ev
Brandon Anderson
4d ago
Last 30d: 30-67-0 (-11.8u)
PIT +2.5-110
0.5u
Week 17 Christmas Lookahead!
Chiefs vs. Steelers Previews & Analysis
Chiefs vs. Steelers Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Chiefs vs. Steelers Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Steelers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Steelers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Steelers are 5-4 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Steelers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Steelers' 7 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Steelers vs. Chiefs Injury Updates
Steelers Injuries
- Tyler MatakevichLB
Matakevich is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
- Jamal AgnewWR
Agnew is out with leg
Out
- Montravius AdamsDT
Adams is questionable with knee
Questionable
- Calvin AndersonT
Anderson is questionable with groin
Questionable
- C.J. HendersonCB
Henderson is out with neck
Out
- Justin FieldsQB
Fields is out with abdominal
Out
- Dylan CookT
Cook is out with foot
Out
- Roman WilsonWR
Wilson is out with hamstring
Out
Chiefs Injuries
- D.J. HumphriesT
Humphries is out with hamstring
Out
- Mecole HardmanWR
Hardman is questionable with knee
Questionable
- Rashee RiceWR
Rice is out with leg
Out
- Chamarri ConnerDB
Conner is out with concussion
Out
- Cam JonesLB
Jones is questionable with illness
Questionable
- Jared WileyTE
Wiley is out with knee
Out
- Spencer ShraderK
Shrader is out with hamstring
Out
Team Stats
Chiefs vs. Steelers Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Chiefs at Steelers Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Chiefs 14-1 | N/A | N/A |
Steelers 10-5 | N/A | N/A |