Seahawks vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2024

Bettingqueen

Take at MGM, includes special teams. FD does not

Bettingqueen

🔑 Seahawks ML +185 (DraftKings) 2u The value is too good. My system loves Seattle too much and the sharp money coming in strong. Lions haven’t looked the same and Goff has been off this year. Last play of the night. BOL

K. Walker ⬇️ 54.5 RusY (-110 @ MGM)(+109 w/ 20% Boost) Won't have a long 📝 for this one, but it coincides with the Smith play. DET has been elite against the run this season. They have allowed the second fewest rushing yards this season. Here are how RB's have done vs DET: Week 1: Kyren - 18 for 50 (in OT) Week 2: White - 10 for 18 Week 3: Connor - 9 for 17 We also get Walker's first game back from an oblique injury. He may have a more limited workload in his first game back

Built using BetAlytics TD Dashboard. 🔑 JSN ATD +240 (FanDuel) 1u Lions have been exposed in the pass game. A riskier play but great value. Expected win probability of 26.77% https://BetAlytics.com Promo code: LOCKSELOT for 25% off

Geno is over this line in 60% of his last 40 games and will always take a chance to run when given. The Lions have been awful vs mobile QBs allowing Kyler Murray to rush for 45 yards on 5 carries and Baker Mayfield, who is not a typical mobile QB, to run for 34 yards and a TD on 5 carries. Geno in my eyes is an extended version of baker, in the sense that he will try to stay more in the pocket, but if there is open room to run, he will take it. The Lions play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL and this always hurts them against mobile QBs. The pressure from Hutchinson will collapse pockets and allow for Geno to step up and scramble. If there is zone coverage, then that it usually a 3-5 yard gain, but with man coverage, there is a lot of room to run to hit this line off 1 run. Geno is 2/2 on this line vs the Lions with 49 and 20 rushing yards. In primetime games he has hit this line in 5/8 games with 1 of his misses having 6 yards. Geno's rush attempts line is heavily favored to the over at 2.5 attempt's and in games where he has had 3 or more rush attempts, he is over this line in 21/25 games. This line is 9.5 and I have seen it as high as 11.5 on some books, so good +EV here as well.

POD

Combining the two luck bets into one

#ProSystem Extended rest unders Overall: 148-90-3,62% (ROI:20%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-36%) Primetime unders (No Thursday) Overall: 233-153-4,60% (ROI:16%) Season:5-1-0,83% (ROI:60%)

Targeting this injured Seahawks DLine. No Byron Murphy II or Leonard Williams tonight on the iDL. Seahawks run defense has been vulnerable this season. 9th highest explosive run rate allowed. They haven’t had as tough of a test on the ground as Detroit will be tonight. Broncos in Week 1, Pats in Week 2 (both and Gibson ran for 80+ yards), and a Tua-less Dolphins in Week 3. They were able to hold Achane in check, but they were able to stack the box with Skylar Thompson at QB. On the other hand, their secondary is really solid, #1 graded in coverage by PFF. Expecting the Lions to ground and pound tonight. As 4.5 point favorites, like their chances to be in a positive game script as well.

Liking Gibbs tonight in this matchup with the Seahawks missing some crucial defensive linemen and linebackers. Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Cameron Young and Boye Mafe are all OUT for the Seahawks and swings the trench battle even more in the Lions favor. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and it is a big reason for their successful turnaround the last few years. The offensive line gets such a dominant push up front and makes it easy for guys like Monty and Gibbs to hit the hole and pick up easy 5 yard gains consistently. Gibbs has been getting more of an increased role in the offense as the Lions lack WR depth and have used him in various ways. Gibbs has hit this line in 2/3 games this season and in back to back games he has had 100+ R+R. His only miss on this line he finished with 74 R+R yards. Loving the matchup and think the offensive line will put Gibbs in a spot to succeed tonight.

100% Caesars Boost used here

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Downgraded to half u

Covered in 14/18 games since 2023 including a 6/7/102 game vs. SEA This may seem like a tough game on paper since SEA ranks #1 in COV but they’ve played Denver, New England and a Miami-less Tua. Last season SEA was a bottom-12 team vs. SLWR - 44% slot rate for Amon-Ra Amon-Ra vs. bottom-12 slot defenses: - Covered 8/10 - AVG 96.8 YPG - AVG 7.9 REC - AVG 10.9 TRG His reception line is juiced at 6.5 or set to 7.5. When he records 6+ catches, he’s covered this line in 15/15 games since last season. SEA is also ranked #8 in QB pressure rate - Amon-Ra leads DET in TPRR when Goff is pressured. He’s covered 10/13 games since last season vs. T12 QB pressure rate teams

@The_Oddsmaker

Giving out on GDD now

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

G. Smith ⬆️ 244.5 PassY (-113 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 283.61 PassY Geno is going to need to use his arm in this game if they want to hang around. Why? Well, DET has an elite offense and their defense is excellent against the run. The one thing I think we can predict is that Geno should get the throwing volume tonight and the books are telling us that. His pass attempts line is at 35.5, but has only passed this mark once this season and in 4 of his L10. If we look at Geno's game log with at least 30 pass attempts, he has cleared this passing total in 8 of his L10 games. He's faced DET twice in the last couple seasons and finished with 328 and 320 passing yards. DET's defense has allowed the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game this season/game and 9th most passing yards per game. According to PFF, DET ranks 6th best against the run and 30th in coverage. This certainly paints a passing-heavy game script. I like this spot quite a bit for Geno and his pass catchers and in what could be a game they are playing behind in.

Nobody I wanted to play on Seattle D is playing. Juicing out of most and hoping for Lions by 3 or 4

FREE PLAY FOR TODAY!

BetRivers

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Seattle starts 3-0 under new head coach Mike Macdonald, showing resilience and discipline. Macdonald's defense, ranked 4th in points allowed (14.3 per game), will challenge Detroit, whose QB Jared Goff has struggled (723 yards, 4 INTs). Seattle’s offense, led by Geno Smith (74.8% completion), balances with a strong running game. Despite Detroit’s offensive line issues, this could be a close, one-score game.

🔬Time to ride the JSN roller coaster. Jaxon has run 85% of his routes from the slot - notable slot games vs the lions - Kupp 14/110 & Godwin 7/117 🔬His snap share has increased each game so far this season 🔬The lions run cover 1 over 30% of the time (similar to the pats who JSN went for 117 against) - Jaxon had a 70+ percentile success rate vs man last year and you can see his routes become more and more crisp as he develops into an NFL receiver which should play well into tonight’s game that could turn into a shootout in Detroit

Disgusting play

Sura

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Avery

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Air control

Johnny

FanDuel

@charliedisturco

NFL WEEK 4 INT PICK 2 OF 2. Article coming shortly.

Smaller for now since want to monitor SEA DL injuries but l like this number