Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc. — they all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have 49ers vs. Rams parlay picks for tonight.
49ers vs. Rams Parlay
- Rams +3 (-122)
- Over 42.5 (-266)
- George Kittle Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+165)
Full 49ers vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +1200 (+1596 Boosted) | $10 Bet Wins $120
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the complex correlations among the legs. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which has already hit twice this season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay for Week 15 on DraftKings.
Rams +3 (-122)
This line has bounced around the key number of 3 over the past couple days, largely thanks to some impactful injury news on the 49ers.
As of Thursday morning, here's what we know. Left tackle Trent Williams will miss a fourth straight game for San Francisco. The 49ers are 1-2 in his absence, with the only win over the lowly Bears.
Fourth string running back turned starter Isaac Guerendo "plans to play" after suffering a foot injury on Sunday. With that said, there's a strong chance he's limited in either workload or ability given the recent injury.
Finally, top pass rusher Nick Bosa seems to be a true game-time decision, logging just one limited practice this week.
Meanwhile, the Rams have gotten healthier down the stretch and are 5-2 since getting back both of their top receivers. The line seems to have moved their way thanks to a fairly clean injury report.
Some books have this line at +2.5, but given the importance of the 3, I'd much rather pay the extra juice to get the +3 at DraftKings. Since we're also getting an SGP profit boost, we're effectively getting better odds and a better line than if we played it elsewhere.
Over 42.5 (-266)
The DraftKings profit boost promotion has been changed to require at least four legs on the SGP, with total odds of +300 or better.
Due to that, I'll be looking for a couple of safer options to meet that requirement. (We'll still end up with solid overall odds.)
This game has a standard total of 49, features two above-average scoring offenses and is being played indoors. Both teams have failed to top 43 or more just once each over the past seven weeks.
It's not adding a ton to the odds, but since we're getting a profit boost anyway, this is worth including.
George Kittle Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
It's always scary taking unders with George Kittle, who is one of just a few tight ends who can turn limited work into big production.
However, from a usage standpoint, we're showing a fairly big edge on Kittle's unders this week. The lack of Trent Williams and running backs that San Francisco trusts in pass protection probably means Kittle will stay in to block more than he typically does. He's an elite blocker as a tight end, which will be important this week — especially if Guerendo is out or limited.
Our median projection for Kittle is just under 49 yards, with a mean of 54. Either way, that gives us some wiggle room here.
Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+165)
Jauan Jennings is one of a handful of players we're projecting with an edge for their anytime touchdown prop in our prop projections for this game.
It's especially promising considering that the running back injuries for San Francisco should lead to a higher pass rate against the Rams — especially if the Rams keep things close or get a lead, which we're already banking on by taking their spread.
Jennings has the highest target rate on the 49ers against zone coverage, which the Rams play at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Since we're also banking on less receiving production from Kittle, some of that should shift to Jennings.
The other benefit is that we're getting better combined odds by taking a 49er anytime touchdown while being on the Rams spread, even though those things aren't especially negatively correlated.
Full 49ers vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +1200 (+1596 Boosted) | $10 Bet Wins $120
