Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Bills vs. Jets parlay for Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," which hit this week, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 6 on DraftKings.
Bills vs. Jets Parlay
- Bills -2 (-115)
- James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards (+110)
- Braelon Allen Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD (+145)
Bills vs. Jets Parlay Odds: +1500 (DraftKings) | $10 Bet Wins $150
Bills -2 (-115)
After starting the season 3-0, the Bills got dominated by the Ravens before losing a close game to Houston last week. This has the markets relatively bearish on the Bills, but I'm viewing that as an overreaction.
Buffalo is a top-10 team in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and I expect the offense to improve throughout the season as Josh Allen continues to build a rapport with his group of mostly new wide receivers.
On the other side, the 2-3 Jets have drawn all the wrong conclusions after losing to Denver and Minnesota. They fired defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh, while leaving notoriously awful offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett at his post.
The Jets rank 12th in DVOA on defense but 23rd on offense coming into the week, and they lost a game by a score of 10-9 to the Broncos. Their struggles haven't been because of the defense.
Despite that, we're getting the Bills at -2 for a "road game" in which they barely have to leave the state. Sometimes it doesn't have to be complicated.
James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards (+110)
This one doesn't do much for the overall odds, since picking a favorite to cover correlates heavily with their running back performing well, which the SGP algorithms are well aware of. It's still too good to pass up.
That's because the Jets are a major run funnel on defense, with a solid passing defense and struggling unit against the run. Plus, James Cook has been good this season, averaging over four yards per carry while seeing 14 rushing attempts per game.
We have this as one of our top props in the NFL Props Tool, with a median of 68 yards for Cook. His base over/under is set at 55.5, but I'm going with the 60+ to get a bit more juice on the parlay.
Braelon Allen Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
One of the few pleasant surprises for the Jets this year has been the emergence of Allen. Their backup running back has forced starter Breece Hall into a time share, with 31 carries over the last four weeks compared to 49 for Hall.
Allen has also cleared this line in three of those games, with the only exception a loss to the Vikings in which the Jets were playing from behind almost the entire game. There's certainly some risk of that here, but the spread should keep things close enough that both backs can stay involved.
We're betting on efficiency a bit here — especially if the Bills do in fact cover the spread — but I expect Allen to get there. We have him projected for a median rushing yards total of 37, giving us a bit of wiggle room.
Adding this prop brings the running odds to +675, and I'll be placing a bet on the three-leg parlay before adding a juicier pick as well.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (+145)
I wasn't sure what kind off odds we'd get by adding this prop. On the one hand, it clearly correlates with the Bills covering the spread. On the other, it's anti-correlated with the Cook (and arguably Braelon Allen) prop.
I like this one for it's own sake, as we have fair value on a Josh Allen touchdown around +136 odds. Not enough edge to bet it by itself, but certainly not a bad pick either.
I really like what happens to the odds of the parlay, though. They jump all the way to +1500 at DraftKings, making this a nice addition.
Full Bills vs. Jets Parlay Odds: +1500 | $10 Bet Wins $150
