NFL football doesn't really get much better than this. Way back before the schedule came out, I ranked this game No. 2 for the entire season, and to be honest, that feels a spot low in hindsight.
The Chiefs and Bills always give us bangers, just classic after classic. Patrick Mahomes is superhuman against most quarterbacks but a mortal 4-3 against Josh Allen, including 1-3 in the regular season — though 3-0 when it matters most in the playoffs.
Good luck finding an edge on the matchup or spread.
Both teams rank in the top 11 running and passing on both offense and defense. Both are well-coached and play stout defense and employ smart, methodical offenses that are good enough to nullify even the best defenses. Mahomes and Allen can break any opposing unit.
Mahomes is 76% ATS as anything worse than a 3.5-point favorite, but Allen's 65% ATS as anything less than a field goal favorite himself. It's typically a good idea to fade unbeaten teams ATS starting in November once the public has gotten overconfident, but those trends don't hold if the undefeated team is an underdog or just won by single digits like Kansas City. Heck, we can't even play the usual second-half trends since these are the two best second-half teams in the league, a combined 15-4 ATS.
If I was forced to pick a side, I lean ever so slightly Buffalo's direction, but I don't need it and frankly I don't even want a side. This is too good a game, too pure football, to need that emotional investment.
Chiefs vs. Bills Parlays, Player Props
But that doesn't mean we're not playing.
I'll invest in player props instead and some game angles I like — Josh Allen rushing overs, Travis Kelce receiving overs, and a close, competitive game — and we'll bet each of those individually with escalators and then build a couple potential same-game parlays at the end.
Josh Allen Rushing Overs
Time and again, we've seen Allen and Mahomes show up big on the ground, making decisive plays with their legs, when the games matter most. And this one really matters, with MVP and a direct path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC on the line.
Josh Allen has consistently run the ball more often in the biggest matchups, saving his legs for those big moments, and the numbers bear that out in these Chiefs games. In seven career games against Kansas City (including the playoffs), Allen has run 10.1 times for 56.1 yards. He's had at least seven carries and at least 32 yards in all seven matchups.
Patrick Mahomes has also been a great runner in Kansas City's biggest moments, scrambling to buy time or getting down the field. He has two games of 60+ rushing yards against the Bills, and some of his signature moments in recent years have come with his legs. But we may not get that this time with Mahomes dealing with a bad ankle, and that's the main reason I lean slightly Buffalo's direction.
I'm looking to invest in Allen rushing overs, both attempts and yards.
Start with the surest bet of the bunch, over 6.5 rushing attempts (-135, DraftKings). He's hit that in all seven Chiefs games, and that's almost always a good bet in big Bills games. And if the Bills win, there's always a chance for a couple of kneel downs at the end if we need them. I'll sprinkle 10+ carries at +375 too (bet365), a number he's hit five straight times against the Chiefs.
Give me the rushing yards over too at 30.5 (-115, DraftKings). Again, that's a number Allen has cleared in all seven Chiefs games. I'd make that line closer to 50, and he's gone over that number in over half his Kansas City matchups so that's worth a touch too at +235.
It's worth noting that Allen is averaging career lows in both rushing attempts and yards and that his three best Chiefs games came in the playoffs, but even just his regular season Kansas City games average over 10 carries for 41 yards a game.
Pick: Allen Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts, Allen Over 30.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce Receiving Overs
Don't look now, but Travis Kelce is back. He's caught eight, 14, and 10 passes the last three weeks and has quietly returned to form as the center of this passing attack after a slow start.
Turns out that slow start might have been by design. Rashee Rice was the central figure in this passing attack, with eight receptions on nine targets a game to start the year, and Kelce barely saw usage. But when Rice went out hurt after three games, Kelce immediately leaped into the spotlight. He's averaged 8.7 receptions on 10.7 targets since, and I bet him at +700 to lead the league in receptions this week.
Kelce has at least five catches in all seven of these Mahomes-Allen matchups and at least 65 receiving yards in all but one. He averages 7.3 receptions and 86 yards against the Bills, a constant threat.
I'll pass on the juiced over 6.5 receptions here and go straight for the 65.5 yards since he should hit that number if he gets the receptions anyway. That's a full 20 yards below his Buffalo average.
Kelce isn't as explosive as he once was, but he's had 89+ yards in half his games since Rice went out. If you want to get aggressive on yards, you can play 100+ yards at +375 or 125+ at +1000 (bet365). I actually prefer a receptions escalator with 10+ catches at +475.
Let's hope we get one of those hurry-up drives where Mahomes and Kelce ad-lib for three or four catches and make magic.
Pick: Kelce Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Chiefs vs. Bills Parlay: Bet on Close, Competitive Game
I probably don't have to tell you that these Mahomes-Allen games have been close late, back and forth, often instant classics. This matchup frequently comes down to just whichever QB has the ball last.
We typically get fireworks late, and these QBs get their teams to score in the final stanza with everything on the line. Until their most recent playoff game, both the Chiefs and Bills had scored in the fourth quarter in all previous six matchups. Some books offer that soccer-type bet — both teams to score in the fourth quarter — and I like that at -195 (DraftKings).
Late score or not, these teams are too evenly matched and these quarterbacks too superhumanly good to expect either team to pull away.
I'm expecting — like most of us — this to be a close game, with either team winning by seven or fewer points. And we can bet that! Every book offers alternate lines, so you can just create an SGP of Chiefs +7.5 and Bills +7.5 for a game that finishes within seven points in either direction. That's -125 at DraftKings, and you can add in the correlated fourth quarter BTTS to make it +146 if you like.
Actually, both teams will likely put up points nearly every quarter. In five of the seven games, we've seen both teams score in all four quarters with the exception of just one team in one quarter. In one of the games, each team scored in each quarter. This isn't the best year for that with run-heavier, more methodical offenses and better defenses, but you can play BTTS each quarter at +1100 (Caesars).
For our parlay, I'll stick with that Bills/Chiefs +7.5 both ways SGP.
Pick: Chiefs +7.5 & Bills +7.5 SGP
Chiefs vs. Bills Parlay: Put Them All Together
So those are the three things I'm most confident of: Allen rushing overs, Kelce receiving overs, and a tight game late.
I'm betting each of those highlighted bets separately above as standalone bets.
But why not have a little fun with the Game of the Week of the Year and put together a couple of SGPs?
SGP #1 — I'm basically just playing all the highlighted parts above, with a slight adjustment. Give me 9+ Allen carries and over on the 30.5 yards, Kelce over 65.5, and +7.5 both ways. That's +1000 at Caesars.
SGP #2 — It does feel like the lucky Chiefs are due to get blown out in one of these games. In case this isn't a close, classic game, I'll build a second SGP without the close-game part, but with more aggressive props. Let's go with 9+ Allen carries for 50+ yards and 10+ Kelce receptions for 80+ yards at +1800 (Caesars).
You've got more than a few options here for how you want to build this out.
This is a big one, so I don't mind investing. Watch the app for specifics, but I'll play the highlighted bets for about a unit each, then sprinkle a few of the escalators and the two SGPs at 0.25 units each.
Let's have some fun.
