Cowboys vs Titans Player Props: Expert Bet on Michael Gallup

Michael Gallup Receptions

Update, 12:40 p.m. ET: With news that Josh Dobbs will start this game instead of Malik Willis, I like this prop less. The player props market is in flux with all the uncertainty leading into this game. I would wait for more information before locking any bets in.

Since the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, Gallup has cleared this number in five of seven games. He's cleared this in the two games that Dallas won by 30 or more points, which means I'm not concerned about the blowout potential of this game.

Here are a few things going in Gallup's favor.

1) The Titans are a pass-funnel defense, ranking 27th in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the pass and second against the run. Dallas should move the ball with ease through the air here.

2) Tony Pollard is likely going to miss this game. What that means is Ezekiel Elliott is likely to see more snaps on passing downs than usual. That should lead to more targets for the likes of Ceedee Lamb, Gallup and Dalton Schultz.

3) With Pollard out against a good Titans run defense we could see Dallas face more third downs than usual tonight. Gallup's target share goes from 11% on early downs to 22% on third.

That third-down target percentage will also be key later in the game if/when the Cowboys go up big, since that'll typically be their main passing down.

Gallup's average depth of target this season is 12.1, but that's down to 7.9 over the last two games. T.Y. Hilton is getting more involved as a deep threat for the Cowboys, which could funnel more high-percentage targets to Gallup underneath.

I'm projecting Gallup for closer to 3.1 receptions with a 60% chance of going over 2.5. I'd bet this up to about -135.

Pick: Michael Gallup Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)

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