Since the dawn of betting, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for Dolphins vs. Rams on Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 10 on DraftKings.
Dolphins vs. Rams Parlay
- Over 48.5 (-112)
- Kyren Williams Under 2.5 Receptions (-110)
- Kyren Williams 90+ Rushing Yards (+100)
- De'Von Achane Over 5.5 Recpetions (-105)
Dolphins vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +900 | $10 Bet Wins $90
Parlay Leg 1: The Dolphins-Rams Over
This game features two bottom-10 defenses by DVOA and two offenses finally getting healthy.
After failing to top 20 points all season, the Dolphins put up 27 in back-to-back weeks with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup. Those games were against the roughly average defenses of the Bills and Cardinals, with the Rams serving as a much softer matchup.
On the Rams side, they finally have their full complement of weapons with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams all fully healthy and off the injury report in Week 10. They've averaged 28 points per game in the two weeks with both top receivers back, despite playing the elite Vikings defense and a solid Seahawks unit.
Even adjusting down slightly for this being a primetime game, this one should clear 50 points more often than not. I'd even consider taking alt overs in the low 50s to further juice this parlay if you want to take an even bigger swing.
Parlay Leg 2: Kyren Williams Receptions
The Rams somewhat begrudgingly leaned on Williams as a receiver in the first half of the season, while navigating injuries to Kupp and Nacua. He had multiple receptions in each of the first four games of the season, averaging a bit over three catches per game.
However, that's shifted since getting back both of their top wideouts. In the last four weeks, Williams has just one multi-catch game, and that came against the Vikings when both Kupp and Nacua missed big chunks of the action.
In the other three games in that window, Williams has just two catches and four targets combined.
As an added bonus, since we took the over here, we're getting a slightly better price on the parlay by including a receptions under.
Parlay Leg 3: Kyren Williams Rushing Yards
On the flip side, lightening Williams' load in the passing game has allowed the Rams to feed him more carries. He's seen at least 20 carries in each of the past four games, averaging 86 yards per contest in that stretch.
All four of those games came against teams with better DVOAs against the run than the Dolphins, so it's fairly easy to adjust Williams' per-touch efficiency up a bit based on the matchup.
With the Rams as home favorites on an extra day of rest, it's hard to see how Williams doesn't get heavy volume this week. I'd actually prefer his rushing attempts over, but that's unfortunately not an option in SGPs. However, his yardage prop serves as a useful proxy.
Parlay Leg 4: De'Von Achane Receptions
I want to jump on this line early while there's still some uncertainty around the status of Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins WR1 appears to be a true game time decision this week, with a wrist injury that popped up on the injury report.
Even with Hill active, De'Von Achane has been heavily involved in the passing game when Tagovailoa is under center. In four games that Tagovailoa has appeared in, Achane has 30 targets and 28 receptions, and hasn't fallen short of this line in any of those games.
If Hill were to miss the contest, Achane's receiving usage would likely expand even further. Hill could also be limited if he does play, which should also help Achane. I'd like the over here even if Hill was fully healthy, but his injury makes it even better.
The odds on this parlay work out to +900, but utilizing DraftKings' profit boost on 4+ leg parlays brings it up to +1197.
Dolphins vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +900 | $10 Bet Wins $90
