Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Jets vs. 49ers parlay for Monday Night Football.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun though, and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he just tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, that means we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Jets vs. 49ers Sunday Night Football parlay built on DraftKings.
Jets vs. 49ers Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football
- 49ers -4 (-108)
- Christian McCaffrey Under 75.5 Rushing Yards(-120)
- Breece Hall 80+ Rushing Yards (+185)
Jets vs. 49ers Parlay Odds: +1900 | $10 bet wins $190
49ers -4 (-108)
I've been basing my parlays so far around totals, but I actually prefer a side on Monday.
It's not because I'm necessarily confident in the 49ers to cover (I tend to believe NFL spreads are fairly efficient markets). It's because of how sportsbooks view the correlation between the 49ers covering and one of the other picks I like.
There's a fairly clear angle here that books are viewing as anti-correlated, but I disagree. You can test this out by building the parlay, then changing the spread pick to the Jets and seeing the impact on the odds.
I do like the 49ers. The spread has tightened throughout the week, but that's putting a lot of faith in a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a major injury taking on last year's NFC champions.
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Christian McCaffrey Under 75.5 Rushing Yards
If you build a two-leg parlay with McCaffrey's rushing under and the Jets spread, the total odds are just +164. With the 49ers spread, it jumps to +410.
That might be a bit of an oversight from the SGP algorithms. When the 49ers are leading, they tend to manage McCaffrey's workload. They should be extra cautious in Week 1, as well, since he missed most of camp with calf and Achilles injuries.
Sportsbooks view McCaffrey having a bad game as likely to correlate with the 49ers losing (or failing to cover the spread), but if San Francisco's passing attack is productive, they won't want to give McCaffrey too much work.
My preference here was for his rushing attempts under since an explosive run or two could help the 49ers cover while still limiting his total carries. That's the top prop for this game in our NFL Props tool. Unfortunately, that market isn't available as part of the SGP tool at any of the shops I checked.
This parlay is a bit riskier but follows the same thesis — and it still shows value in the prop tool.
Breece Hall 80+ Rushing Yards (+185)
With the outsized payout on the two-leg parlay of McCaffrey's under and the 49ers to cover, I'd be more than happy to stop there.
I'll be betting the two-leg version of the parlay, but in the spirit of attempting to cover our Monday SGPs for the rest of the season, let's sweeten the pot with a long shot.
We have a median projection of 65 yards for Hall, but I'm more optimistic. San Francisco was much easier to attack on the ground than through the air last season. Hall might also be one of just a few true workhorse running backs left in the league this season since his primary backup is a fourth-round rookie.
This pick obviously doesn't correlate with the 49ers covering the spread since you'd think the Jets would have to throw the ball more if they're losing. Hall could pick up plenty of yardage between the 20-yard lines without having a huge impact on the score, though.
If you're worried about the Jets skewing more pass-heavy while trailing, switching to Hall's rushing + receiving props is also an option.
Full Jets vs. 49ers Parlay Odds: +1900 | $10 Bet Wins $190
As a reminder, with parlay odds being somewhat opaque there's massive variation from book to book. Be sure to shop around to get the best line as this parlay had odds of just +1466 on FanDuel at the time of writing.
