We're about to close Week 1 with my Jets vs. 49ers player prop tonight.
Monday Night Football has an intriguing matchup with Aaron Rodgers returning to lead a Jets offense with a lot of talent, featuring Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The 49ers offense also is full of talent, headlined by the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
I'm fading the other key playmaker in the 49ers offense tonight. Let's get into my Monday Night Football pick.
Brandon Aiyuk Player Prop
Brandon Aiyuk
Under 3.5 Receptions (+120)
When I pick a noteworthy name like this, I always have to be clear about why I'm fading the player.
I'm not fading Brandon Aiyuk's talent. He's one of the best wide receivers in the league and just got paid like one. This pick is about the underlying factors in this matchup that leads me to his under.
We'll start from a league-wide perspective. Passing production is down so far in Week 1. Teams are averaging 187 passing yards per game heading into Monday Night Football, and that's the lowest number since the turn of the century.
Rushing production, though, has gone way up to 121 yards per game. That sets up perfectly for the 49ers to stick with a run-heavy offense against a very good Jets pass defense.
It's unclear if Christian McCaffrey can handle a full workload tonight, but I expect Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel to get any rush attempts he cannot handle.
In addition to that, Aiyuk is expected to be on a limited snap count tonight. He sat out most of training camp while waiting for a new contract and will be eased back into action to start the regular season.
This is also a brutal matchup for the 49ers passing attack.
Aiyuk will be lined up across from either Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed all night, and they're two of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. The Jets also allowed the fewest completions of 20 or more yards down the field last season. That's where Aiyuk thrives.
Because of the Jets' success in defending the pass downfield, I think this matchup is more suited toward McCaffrey, Samuel and George Kittle. One way to think about this prop is that you're not rooting against Aiyuk, but instead for those three.
The Jets offense will help this prop, as well. Aaron Rodgers-led offenses tend to play at a very slow pace, and that could limit the 49ers' overall play volume tonight.
I'm projecting Aiyuk with a 60% chance to stay under 3.5. The fact that Week 1 has been historic in its lack of passing yards, though, gives this a bit more value to Aiyuk's under.
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Under 3.5 Receptions +120
