We'll end an exciting NFL Week 16 with my Saints vs. Packers player prop.
Jordan Love and the Packers are 14.5-point favorites over the Saints, but I'm targeting an under on Love for Monday Night Football.
Saints vs. Packers Player Prop: Jordan Love
The Packers have been a very run heavy team this year, especially with Josh Jacobs playing at a high level.
Since Jordan Love returned to action in Week 4, the Packers have the second-lowest early down pass rate in neutral situations (only the Eagles are lower). They are 14-point favorites and facing a Saints' run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA, so I expect them to have a very run heavy game plan tonight.
When rooting for a completions under like this, you are really just rooting for the quarterback to make his completions count early and build a lead.
Love is perfect for that because he throws downfield at the second-highest rate and throws past the sticks at the fifth-highest rate. That’s key because you just want him picking up big gains on his completions and setting up first downs, where the Packers have been very run heavy.
You also want his pass catchers to rack up yards after the catch. The Packers are second in YAC per reception and the Saints defense leads the league in tards after the catch over expected, which will only help this prop.
I’m projecting Love closer to 18.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 19.5.
