Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays. So, we have Vikings vs. Rams parlay picks for the NFC Wild Card game on Monday night.
Vikings vs. Rams Parlay
- Rams Moneyline +126
- Sam Darnold Over 265.5 Passing Yards
- Jalen Nailor Anytime TD
Full Vikings vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +2600 | $10 Bet Wins $260
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. The complex correlations among the legs make fair odds nearly impossible to calculate. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
You could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which has hit twice this season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner each day, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Vikings vs. Rams parlay for Wild Card Monday on FanDuel.
Rams Moneyline (+122)
Were I not trying to shoot for big odds on this SGP, I'd prefer the Rams +2.5 point spread, but let's take a big swing on this one.
Los Angeles already has a win over the Vikings, beating them at home earlier this season. The interesting thing about that win is that it came the week after Minnesota lost to the Lions for the first time, with this game coming immediately following the Vikings' second loss to Detroit.
The "Lions hangover" has been a thing, with teams performing worse (by various metrics) following games against Dan Campbell's physical squad.
That impact could be amplified here because not only did the Vikings play a tough Week 18 game, but the Rams were able to rest many of their starters in the season's final week.
This translates to a healthier, well-rested "home" team that is a slight underdog. I'll take that as a starting point for the SGP.
Sam Darnold Over 265.5 Passing Yards
Our projections have Sam Darnold's median exactly at this line, which is a hair lower than other sportsbooks in the market.
However, if the Rams win the game, that probably means more passing volume from Minnesota as it tries to mount a comeback.
In addition, FanDuel gives us better odds on the total parlay by pairing the Rams moneyline with Darnold's passing yards over than his under since they view the correlation as Darnold's passing success, making the Vikings more likely to win. That's obviously true, too, but we're making more of a volume bet.
The Vikings are a top-three team in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the NFL, so Darnold should have plenty of chances if the Rams control the game.
Jalen Nailor Anytime TD (+500)
I wanted a Vikings anytime TD prop to round out this parlay, knowing that it would give us much better overall odds when paired with the Rams moneyline. Plus, it's not like we expect the Vikings to be shut out. They'll score some touchdowns even in a loss.
One of the biggest edges in our projections is on Nailor, who's emerged a bit late in the season as opposing defenses key in on Justin Jefferson.
Nailor has over 130 yards and a score across his last two games, which came against tougher pass defenses (Lions and Packers) than he faces on Monday in the Rams. Plus, it correlates nicely with Darnold going over on passing yards.
Throwing this one in brings the odds past 20-to-1 on FanDuel.
Full Vikings vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +2359 | $10 Bet Wins $235.97
