NFL Player Props Week 16
Welcome to my NFL player props for the NFL Week 16 slate, which will be updated throughout Friday and Saturday with all of my picks.
WR Trenton Irwin
Under 1.5 Receptions (+110)
Ja’Marr Chase has been ruled out for Bengals vs Steelers, which means Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas and Charlie Jones will see an increase in playing time. When Tee Higgins missed time earlier this season, it was Irwin who became a near one-for-one replacement.
Last week, when Chase was forced out of the game, it was Irwin who initially replaced him. However, Iosivas and Jones mixed in frequently. It was Iosivas who ended up seeing the most routes in Chase’s absence and I think that trend may continue as he's flashed at times during his rookie season, specifically in the preseason.
Irwin has caught 75% of his targets this season, which is a bit high for a player with an aDot of 10.9. He’s likely due for some catch % regression going forward. Jake Browning has also targeted him at a lower rate than Joe Burrow.
Since Irwin mainly lines up on the outside, he will likely face Joey Porter Jr. on roughly half of his snaps. That's going to be a problem given Porter has been a shutdown corner in his rookie campaign. The Bengals may even try to scheme up plays with Irwin lined up across from Porter to open up plays for more talented pass-catchers.
It would also make sense for the Bengals to focus on getting the ball to Chase Brown, Tanner Hudson and Tyler Boyd at a higher rate. Think of this as a way of investing in them — and since there are currently no props for Iosivas, this is essentially buying him having a bigger role than expected.
I’m projecting Irwin closer to 1.2 receptions and a 62% chance he stays under. Getting plus odds is a nice bonus as I think in this volatile situation, he’s more likely to have a game closer to his floor (0-1 receptions).
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