NFL Week 16 has arrived, and I have some NFL player props locked in for the 16th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 16. Also, be sure to keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 16 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 16
- Calen Bullock (Texans) Under 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-105, DraftKings) (+110, ESPN Bet)
- Najee Harris (Steelers) Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-120, DraftKings)
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (Steelers) Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-105, DraftKings)
Texans vs Chiefs Player Props: Calen Bullock Tackles + Assists
This is simply a bad number being floated for the third-round rookie as he's only cleared this line in two of 12 games since becoming a full-time player.
Bullock tends to play deep and needs an explosive play to be in on a tackle. He's coming off a six-tackle game in a plus matchup against the Dolphins and although the Chiefs are a plus matchup for safeties, Bullock’s tackle rate hasn’t really been sensitive to many factors. He's consistently seen a low tackle rate through nearly every scenario and I’m projecting him closer to 3.9 tackles with around a 63% chance he stays under 4.5
Steelers vs Ravens Player Props: Najee Harris Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts
Najee Harris has cleared this number in nine of the past 10 games, but I think this is a good spot to fade him.
The Steelers have only trailed on 34% of their plays this season, but as 6.5-point road 'dogs against the Ravens, I’m projecting them to trail for roughly 51% of their plays, which is around a +17% rate over their season average. That means we should expect a much more pass-heavy game script, especially facing a pass funnel Ravens defense.
Not only should there be fewer rushing attempts to go around, but Harris tends to see a lower percentage of them when in trailing game scripts as Jaylen Warren tends to see an uptick in usage. Here is how the two backs have split rushing attempts since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7.
Steelers Leading by 8+: Harris 61%, Warren 22%
Neutral: Harris 54%, Warren 30%
Steelers Trailing by 8+: Harris 33%, Warren 33%
As you can see, a potential trailing game script would also result in a lower percentage of rushing attempts for Harris.
Based on my team projection of 26 rushing attempts and Harris getting about 48% of Pittsburgh's rushing attempts, I’m projecting Harris closer to 12.7 rushing attempts with around a 60% chance to stay under 13.5.
Steelers vs Ravens Player Props: Minkah Fitzpatrick Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists
Minkah Fitzpatrick has cleared this number in 43% of his games this season, but has only cleared it in two of the past nine contests.
He tends to sit back and typically needs explosive plays in order to be in on tackles. The Ravens should provide a few of those for Fitzpatrick, but are still a below-average matchup in terms of tackle opportunities for a safety. Fitzpatrick is typically more involved in passing plays.
The Steelers have allowed 21.5 completions per game, but Lamar Jackson’s completion prop is 19.5, so Fitzpatrick could see fewer tackle opportunities than usual here.
Still, he will be in on some longer runs from Jackson and/or Derrick Henry, and I’m projecting him closer to 5.9 tackles with around a 60% chance he stays under 6.5.
Another sneaky reason why Fitzpatrick may be offering even more value on the under is the fact that the Steelers home scorekeeper tends to be one of the most generous in terms of dishing out assists, while Baltimore’s tends to be one of the stingiest.
