The first round of the NFL playoffs wraps up Monday, with the Rams taking on the Vikings in Arizona at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Vikings vs. Rams tonight.
Vikings vs. Rams PrizePicks
Kyren Williams Fantasy Score More Than 16
Our DFS models have Kyren Williams projected at just under 18 fantasy points on Monday, making this a solid edge relative to our projections.
The Rams back should resume his role as a workhorse this week after getting a meaningless Week 18 off, especially with RB2 Blake Corum lost for the year with an injury.
Williams has beaten this line in five straight games and 10-of-16 overall on the season. Given the stakes at hand in the playoffs, it's unlikely they give much of his workload to third-stringer Ronnie Rivers.
Plus, this is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. That's a solid game environment for running backs, especially if you think the Rams could potentially pull off the upset.
Matthew Stafford Less Than 244.5 Passing Yards
A big game for Williams likely limits the volume from Matthew Stafford, giving these picks some solid correlation. Since I'm already building these around the idea of a Rams upset, that typically means more rushing and less receiving than the market would expect.
On top of that, Minnesota had the league's No. 1 passing defense by DVOA, which should further limit the success through the air.
Our projections have Stafford with a mean yardage total of 231.5, and a median of 235, both a bit under this line.
Sam Darnold More Than 0.5 Interceptions
While Sam Darnold has salvaged his career in Minnesota, one thing he hasn't fixed is the interceptions. He's thrown 12 in 17 games this season, tied for fourth most in the NFL.
While the Rams ranked middle of the pack in interceptions defensively, that still works out to a better than 50% chance they get one on Darnold tonight — especially if the Rams get off to a lead, forcing Minnesota to be more aggressive.
That ties all three picks together fairly nicely, though I like this one even on it's own merits.
