What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen, and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the New York Jets and Houston Texans.
Be sure to subscribe to the Action Network YouTube channel, where our experts give out their picks on Action Island each week. If you missed this week's show, you can read about their picks below.
Jets vs. Texans Parlay Tonight
- Mike Williams Longest Reception Over 12.5 (-118)
- CJ Stroud Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
- Jeremy Ruckert Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Parlay Odds: +448 (FanDuel)
Mike Williams Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yards
Nick Giffen: Aaron Rodgers throws deeper when pressured, which helps Mike Williams, who has been targeted an average of 14.6 yards downfield, and his median (16 yards, which clears this prop) has been even longer.
If that remains his true long-term target depth, that means he should be favored to clear this number on any given catch.
Given that Williams' receptions line sits at 1.5 with heavy juice to the over, we can feel good about his chances of catching multiple passes, giving us an even better chance of clearing this number.
Based off of a projection of 1.9 receptions tonight, I have Williams with a 66% chance to clear this number tonight.
CJ Stroud Over 8.5 Rushing Yards
Gilles Gallant: CJ Stroud has gone over this number in five of his games this season, and in each of those games he had a run of 10 or more yards.
The Jets are allowing 4.2 yards per carry to quarterbacks this season and six of the nine QBs they've faced have gone over this prop.
The Jets' defense is better defending the pass than the run and they rank 23rd in defensive DVOA against the run.
As my colleague Sean Koerner noted, Stroud also has a 9.7% scramble rate when facing pressure this year compared to a 4.1% rate from a clean pocket, and he could see a fair amount of pressure tonight.
Jeremy Ruckert Under 6.5 Receiving Yards
Sean Koerner: It's worth noting that this prop is 7.5 at DraftKings and a yard in a market like this is a really big deal, so I obviously prefer that number. But for the purposes of the same-game parlay we're using FanDuel so we'll go with 6.5 here.
Ruckert typically runs a route in around 20% of Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks. I would expect tonight's game script to be more run-heavy for the Jets, so that could mean around just seven routes run for Ruckert tonight.
I'm projecting Ruckert with a 59% chance to stay under 6.5 and a 63% chance to stay under 7.5.
