NFL Week 15 Luck Rankings Picks: 4 Games Fit Thresholds

Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
2. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 128-76-6 (62.4%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.

In Week 14, the Cleveland Browns failed to cover in the lone Luck Matchup of the week that met our thresholds. That moves unlucky team teams in those games to 15-15-1 (50%) ATS on the season.

There were two Luck Totals in Week 14. Both Luck Unders stayed under, bringing Luck Unders to 12-9-0 for the season, while Luck Overs remain undefeated at 4-0-0. Overall, Luck Totals stand at 16-9-0 (64%) this season.

As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 31-24-1 (56.3%) on the season.

For NFL Week 15, there is one Luck Matchup and two Luck Unders. Let's take a look.

NFL Luck Rankings Week 15 Games

Chiefs vs. Browns

Sunday, Dec. 15

1 p.m. ET

CBS

Luck Gap: 41.0%
Luck Difference: 28