Every Sunday night, I'll reveal the bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 15 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 15 Picks
Colts vs. Broncos Prediction
Usually, these picks are reacting to Sunday's action, but these teams are both coming off their byes. I've had it circled, though, because of a trend and it has already dropped.
Game with a total over 40 featuring two teams coming off a bye over the last two decades are 40-19 (68%) to the under. Such games have gone under the total in eight straight instances and have done so by more than 10 points per game. They're averaging 32.6 points per game, and not one of those eight have gone over 40.
The Broncos defense will be disappointed with how efficient Jameis Winston was against it before the bye and will have plenty of time to prepare for Anthony Richardson. Denver is a top-five defense on early downs and while Indianapolis is a bottom-10 offense over the first three quarters, the Broncos have the second-best second-half defense in the NFL.
The Colts defense actually ranks in the top 10 in the first and third quarters, too, which sets up well to defend the Broncos' scripted plays.
NFL Week 15 Teaser
The Patriots are coming off their bye week but are the worst team in the NFL in DVOA and rank in the bottom three both offensively and defensively. Drake Maye has shown flashes of good play this season, but that's it.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, entered Week 14 as a top-five team in DVOA over the past six weeks.
Arizona's offense was actually pretty impressive in the loss to the Seahawks with the way the Seattle defense was playing. The Cardinals, though, were doomed by two early Kyler Murrayinterceptions, but they clearly were the better team.
At 6-7, Arizona may have to win out to make the playoffs, so that's what I'm basically betting on it to do here.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are coming off a bye so Jayden Daniels will be rested and Kliff Kingsbury will have had time to self-scout and get his offensive line healthy. Also, Washington is 7-2 this season when Brian Robinson Jr. is healthy, and he gets a great matchup against the worst run defense in the NFL in the Saints.
Derek Carr left the Saints' Week 14 game injured yesterday, as well. This season, New Orleans' closest game without him was an 18-point loss.
The Cardinals and Commanders just need to win to keep going in the playoff hunt, so we'll call this the "Just Win, Baby" Teaser.
