Since gambling has existed, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a 49ers vs. Seahawks parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 or better odds to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my 49ers-Seahawks parlay built at FanDuel.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Parlay for Thursday Night Football
- 49ers -3.5 (-105)
- Over 48.5 (-112)
- Jauan Jennings Over 2.5 Receptions (-114)
- DK Metcalf Anytime TD (+145)
Full Seahawks vs. 49ers Parlay Odds: +1245 | $10 Bet Wins $124.50
49ers -3.5 (-110)
One part of this pick is based on our Week 6 Luck Rankings. While they aren't quite enough to trigger a bet in and of themselves, Seattle ranks seventh luckiest while the 49ers are 27th. In a situation where we're taking a side for the sake of a parlay, that's a strong signal.
The 49ers are also without starting kicker Jake Moody. I have no clue how confident they are in the backup, but a hesitance to kick field goals — thus going for it more on fourth down more often in enemy territory — takes some of the value away from three as a key number. As an example, if San Francisco has the ball in a tied game, it'll be more likely to push for a touchdown than settle for a field goal.
The final reason is how it aligns with our other selections, which we'll get to now.
Over 48.5 (-112)
The over slightly correlates with favorites covering the spread, since the spread represents a small portion of the total scoring in a high scoring game than a low one.
More importantly, both offenses are almost fully healthy (outside of Christian McCaffrey), while both defenses are extremely banged up. Both teams had three defensive starters miss practice this week, and there are plenty of questionable tags on both teams' injury reports.
That makes the 49ers and over a solid foundation for this parlay, which we can look to juice up with our other picks.
Jauan Jennings Over 2.5 Receptions (-114)
Jauan Jennings was briefly the focal point of the 49ers offense when various receivers were out, exploding for 175 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3.
While he has more competition for targets now, that performance earned him a more permanent role in the offense. He's seen 10 targets in the two weeks since then.
Our NFL Props Tool has the two best values on this game as his receptions and yardage overs. I'd be OK with either, but we're getting slightly better value at FanDuel by including the receptions, so that's my pick.
These three bring us to a total of +512, but let's see if we can juice it up even more with another pick.
DK Metcalf Anytime TD (+145)
I wanted to go with a Seahawks touchdown scorer here, since we'll get better odds on the parlay by combining a Seattle player with the 49ers spread selection.
My first read was Kenneth Walker, but he's sharing enough work with Zach Charbonnet that it's hard to justify his -120 odds.
Instead, let's go with DK Metcalf. Our projections have his odds reasonably close to Walker's but with a considerably better price tag. It also makes more sense to build around the passing attack since we're expecting a high-scoring game with the 49ers leading.
Adding the Metcalf touchdown brings the total parlay odds to +1245, as of Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Full Seahawks vs. 49ers Parlay Odds: +1245 | $10 Bet Wins $124.50
