The Houston Texans will face the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday, Jan. 18, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the first game of the NFL Divisional Round. The game is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Beyond NFL spreads and total bets, I'm looking at Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorers and have a pick for each team.
Here are my three anytime touchdown scorer bets for Texans-Chiefs on Saturday afternoon.
Texans vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Xavier WorthyAnytime Touchdown (+210; BetMGM)
- Joe MixonAnytime Touchdown (+140; FanDuel)
- C.J. StroudAnytime Touchdown (+1200; FanDuel)
Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+210)
We saw this matchup as recently as Week 16 — a 27-19 Chiefs win. What stood out was how the Texans limited explosive plays and only allowed two catches over 20-plus yards, which has been Houston’s strength all season.
The Texans give up a lot of TDs to WRs (bottom three in NFL) but still ranked third in defensive DVOA against the pass because of how they limit long passes and completions overall. Still, I feel pretty good about the Chiefs' passing game having success — it starts with WR Xavier Worthy (+210) to score a TD because of his versatility.
Worthy led Chiefs receivers this season with 17 red-zone targets; he also led the team with four receiving TDs inside the 10-yard line. When you factor in that he also had six red-zone carries and three rushing touchdowns, it’s hard not to get excited about his scoring potential.
The Texans play zone defense at a top-five rate and allow a lot of TDs to WRs; Worthy has five receiving TDs vs. zone defenses this season.
The only thing that gives me pause on Worthy is his tendency to drop passes — even when he scored against the Texans in the regular season, he should’ve had two TDs but dropped one.
I will also mention that I like DeAndre Hopkins (+310) and Marquise Brown (+333), but if I have to choose one of the three, I’d go with Worthy.
Joe Mixon Anytime TD (+140)
On the Texans' side, it’s bleak.
Everyone loves Nico Collins. He had 10 targets in the Week 16 matchup but facing CB Trent McDuffie and the Chiefs secondary, it might be a tough matchup for him without Tank Dell operating as a deep threat.
That’s why I’m going all-in on the run game for the Texans. RB Joe Mixon at +145 is a solid price for a player we know should see the majority of carries in the backfield — he had -115 odds to score a TD in Week 16. The move to +145 is far too drastic for an RB that had over 70% of red-zone carries and 11 rushing TDs despite missing three games.
C.J. Stroud Anytime TD +1200
The only other TD bet I want to sprinkle on is QB CJ Stroud at +1200. While he didn't have any rushing touchdowns in the regular season, he may have to improvise with his lack of receiving options outside of Collins. Stroud's scramble rate increases when he's under pressure; the Chiefs rank top-five in pressure rate per dropback.
Basically, I’m trying to cover both of my bases on rushing touchdowns if/when the Texans get inside the 10-yard line.
