The Washington Commanders (12-5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) will face off in the NFL Wild Card Round. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on Peacock.
The Buccaneers are favored by 3 points with the game total set at 50 (-110o / -110u). The Buccaneers are -165 favorites to win outright, while the Commanders are +140 to pull off the upset.
Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving and Mike Evans are leading one of the league's hottest offenses. Evans notched 1,000 yards on the season for an 11th straight year in Week 18. But the Buccaneers are just small favorites against rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Daniels, Terry McLaurin and the rest of Washington's dynamic offense will have to outduel Tampa Bay's offense in a game that features the highest total of Wild Card Weekend.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- Commanders vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
- Commanders vs. Buccaneers over/under: 50 (-110o / -110u)
- Commanders vs. Buccaneers moneyline: Buccaneers -165, Commanders +140
- Commanders vs. Buccaneers best bet: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
MyCommanders vs. Buccaneers best bet is on Tampa Bay. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I'm laying three points with Tampa Bay. Both offenses could thrive, but I don't see how Washington stops the Buccaneers' rushing attack.
In the end, I don't think the Commanders will be able to keep up with the Buccaneers offense.
Over/Under
Given my reasoning for my spread pick, I'd obviously lean toward the over. I think the best way to bet on this game, though, is through the Buccaneers as home favorites.
My Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
Commanders vs. Buccaneers NFL Wild Card Round Preview
I love this matchup for the Buccaneers, who love to blitz defensively. Jayden Daniels hasn’t been as efficient against the blitz with a 45% success rate against the blitz compared to 52% when he’s not. Daniels’ touchdown rating also goes down.
The Buccaneers defense is also getting healthier.
S Antoine Winfield Jr. and CB Jamel Dean both practiced this week, which would provide a huge boost to the secondary. I don’t think people realize how banged up the Buccaneers defense has been this season. It’s still missing a starting safety if those two return.
Tampa Bay can stop the run, though, with that unit starring Vita Vea in the middle of the defensive line. That’s going to be an issue for the Commanders since Daniels is obviously very active with his legs, and the Commanders offensive line is banged up entering this game.
Any success Washington has offensively is going to come down to Daniels carrying the load and creating plays. The fact that he may not have a successful run game alongside him is worrisome.
Defensively, the Commanders have been blitzing a lot while playing more single-high-safety coverage than any other team. Well, Mayfield is No. 1 in success rate against the blitz, and he ranks in the top five in success rate against single-high and two-high coverages.
You could see either team’s passing game do well here, but I don’t think the Commanders will be able to contain the Bucs’ run game. Bucky Irving has taken over as the lead back for Tampa Bay and he could be in for a big workload. Washington ranks 23rd in line yards on defense and 28th in yards allowed per carry to opposing running backs.
I think that will be the difference. The Buccaneers can put up a big number offensively either through the air or on the ground, which Washington won’t be able to do. I see the Commanders having a hard time keeping up with an efficient Tampa Bay offense at home.
My Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Commanders Betting Trends
Buccaneers vs. Commanders Weather
