The Washington Commanders (12-5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) face off in the NFL Wild Card Round on Sunday night. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium. The game will be broadcast on NBC and can be streamed on Peacock.
Commanders vs Buccaneers odds for Sunday night have the Bucs as -170 moneyline favorites and Commanders as +145 underdogs. The over/under is 51.5 total points (-115o/ -105u). The Bucs are -3 to cover the spread over the Commanders.
Below, you can find my NFC Wild Card preview and Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction and picks, in addition to the latest betting trends, injury reports, weather forecast and more for Sunday.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Predictions
Spread Pick
I'm laying three points with Tampa Bay. Both offenses could thrive, but I don't see how Washington stops the Buccaneers' rushing attack.
In the end, I don't think the Commanders will be able to keep up with the Buccaneers offense.
Over/Under
Given my reasoning for my spread pick, I'd obviously lean toward the over. I think the best way to bet on this game, though, is through the Buccaneers as home favorites.
Commanders vs Bucs Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
Commanders vs Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -170 |
- Commanders vs Buccaneers spread: Commanders +3 (-110), Bucs -3 (-110)
- Commanders vs Buccaneers over/under: 51.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Commanders vs Buccaneers moneyline: Commanders +145, Bucs -170
- Commanders vs Buccaneers best bet: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
MyCommanders vs. Buccaneers best bet is on Tampa Bay to cover the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Bucs Preview & Prediction
I love this matchup for the Buccaneers, who love to blitz defensively. Jayden Daniels hasn’t been as efficient against the blitz with a 45% success rate against the blitz compared to 52% when he’s not. Daniels’ touchdown rating also goes down.
The Buccaneers defense is also getting healthier.
S Antoine Winfield Jr. and CB Jamel Dean both practiced this week, which would provide a huge boost to the secondary. I don’t think people realize how banged up the Buccaneers defense has been this season. It’s still missing a starting safety if those two return.
Tampa Bay can stop the run, though, with that unit starring Vita Vea in the middle of the defensive line. That’s going to be an issue for the Commanders since Daniels is obviously very active with his legs, and the Commanders offensive line is banged up entering this game.
Any success Washington has offensively is going to come down to Daniels carrying the load and creating plays. The fact that he may not have a successful run game alongside him is worrisome.
Defensively, the Commanders have been blitzing a lot while playing more single-high-safety coverage than any other team. Well, Mayfield is No. 1 in success rate against the blitz, and he ranks in the top five in success rate against single-high and two-high coverages.
You could see either team’s passing game do well here, but I don’t think the Commanders will be able to contain the Bucs’ run game. Bucky Irving has taken over as the lead back for Tampa Bay and he could be in for a big workload. Washington ranks 23rd in line yards on defense and 28th in yards allowed per carry to opposing running backs.
I think that will be the difference. The Buccaneers can put up a big number offensively either through the air or on the ground, which Washington won’t be able to do. I see the Commanders having a hard time keeping up with an efficient Tampa Bay offense at home.
My Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
Commanders vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
Buccaneers Trends
- The Bucs have played four night games this season; they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.
- Baker Mayfield is 1-9 SU in his last 10 night games (regular season and playoffs).
Commanders Trends
- Washington went 9-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in games with normal or extended rest this season.
- Rookie QBs are 5-15 SU on the road in the playoffs since 1990.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Latest Injuries
Commanders Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| WR Jamison Crowder | Questionable (knee) |
Buccaneers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| CB Troy Hill | Out (knee/foot) |
| S Antoine Winfield Jr. | Questionable (knee) |
| TE Cade Otton | Questionable (knee) |
| DL Logan Hall | Questionable (groin) |
| S Mike Edwards | Questionable (quad) |
| CB Jamel Dean | Questionable (knee) |
