USA vs Morocco Odds & Pick
| USA Odds | +225 |
| Morocco Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -112 |
The United States Men's National Team can take a giant step toward their first-ever Olympic medal if they pull off a mild upset against Morocco in Friday's quarterfinal.
The Americans won back to back matches to finish second in their group, 4-1 over New Zealand and 3-0 over Guinea after beginning the tournament with a 3-0 loss to host France that was closer than the score.
But Morocco will represent easily the toughest challenge since that opener, with the backing of a sizable expat population that lives in France and a squad that includes four players who were on the team that finished fourth at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
USA Picks
The excellent American performances should be put in the context of the opponents, who were two of the weaker qualifiers in the entire tournament.
New Zealand are a regular fixture in the Olympics primarily because the rest of the Oceana confederation is so weak. Guinea had their moments, but were hit in the group finale with the late scratch to veteran captain Naby Keita, who had been written into the initial XI against the U.S.
Even so, the Americans' directness and ability to consistently create chances — even in the loss France — stands in contrast to struggles to do that by the senior national team at the Copa America this summer. Marko Mitrovic's group has put 20 efforts on target across its three games, 17 of those coming in their two wins.
Against Guinea, the biggest development was Mitrovic's decision to tweak his formation from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 and swap in Griffin Yow in place of Duncan McGuire, the team's lone true center forward. Out of that shape, the U.S. high pressed Guinea with great success in the first half and effectively sealed the result with a 2-0 lead at half.
Morocco Picks
Morocco opened their tournament with one of the strangest victories in the history of international competition, a 2-1 win over Argentina that saw the game suspended for two hours after an apparent Argentina equalizer in second-half stoppage time, only for the goal to be ruled out via VAR following the resumption of the match.
But it took a 3-0 victory over Iraq on the final day of competition to seal the top spot in the group ahead of Argentina on the head to head tiebreak after both teams finished with the same goal differential and goals scored.
Soufiane Rahimi, one of those four Moroccans who was on the 2022 World Cup squad, leads the Olympic tournament with four goals — two of those coming from the penalty spot. Archaf Hakimi — regarded as one of the best right backs on the planet — has played all 270 minutes as one of the squad's three overage players.
And Morocco have played all of their matches before highly partisan crowds in their favor, as easily the most well-supported team in the tournament outside of France.
USA – Morocco
Prediction
The Moroccans have easily had the tougher group schedule. But the United States showed in their opener against France that their approach was capable of translating into chances against the higher-level teams in this tournament, even if they failed to convert those opportunities.
And the history of Olympic knockout competition is a bit of an odd one. As with other tournaments, the scores generally skew lower than in group play. But momentum also appears to play more of a role, and if there is an early goal, the higher scoring games often become much higher scoring. Perhaps that owes to the lack of big tournament experience within the sides, given the U-23 age restriction.
Given that both the Americans and Moroccans have shown themselves effective in creating chances both from the lead and from behind, I think this is a spot to play that possibility of a game that takes off following an early goal.
I'm certainly not sure the total goes above 2.5 goals. But if it does, it has a good chance to also land above 3.5 goals, a wager available +235 and an implied 29.9% probability. It's a bet that has cashed on 12-of-28 occasions in the quarterfinals since the current tournament rules. And these are two of six teams in the tournament who scored six goals or more in the group stage.
