Atalanta look for their fourth straight win in all competitions when they host Celtic at the Gewiss Stadium.
Atalanta had a bit of a rough start to the season, but they have rebounded well, winning their last three matches across all competitions. They dominated Shakhtar in their previous Champions League match and another win here would put them in a good position to make the knockout stage.
Celtic were battered 7-1 by Dortmund in their previous Champions League match, but the Scottish champions still look to be in a god position to make the knockout stage. They've struggled defensively against elite competition in the Champions League, but after their impressive underlying offensive numbers against Dortmund, don't be surprised to see them put the ball in the back of the net.
Let's get into my forecast for this Champions League fixture between Atalanta and Celtic.
Atalanta vs. Celtic Prediction, Picks
| Atalanta Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -235 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -235 |
| Celtic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +160 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +550 |
- Atalanta vs. Celtic moneyline odds: Atalanta -235, Celtic +550, Draw +425
- Atalanta vs. Celtic over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Atalanta vs. Celtic pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes
I am backing both teams to score in Celtic vs Atalanta.
Atalanta Preview
It's been an interesting season for Atalanta defensively. They famously went full man to man against Leverkusen in the Champions League final and it worked, as they were able to consistently turn Xabi Alonso's side over and create chance after chance. However, something different happened this season, as they started to allow goals left and right.
What happens when you decide to go full man to man across the pitch is you consistently leave yourself in 1 v 1 situations, especially across your backline. Teams have recognized this and started to play very direct against Atalanta and they have been losing those 1 v 1 battles, which has translated into a lot of high quality chances being conceded.
Atalanta are allowing 1.2 npxG per 90 minutes through their first eight matches when last season, they only were allowing 0.9. Their last three matches against bad teams have been much better defensively, but they've allowed over one expected goal in their first five Serie A matches.
The offensive numbers, however, have been really good. Atalanta are averaging 2.04 xG per 90 minutes because of how good they've been in build up.
When in possession under Gasperini, Atalanta will consistently build up out of a back three, trying to get wide passing triangles against the opponent's press, and they do it with a lot of success.
Then once they enter the final third they commit a ton of bodies into the attack and have been really good at pinning their opponents inside the final third. They lead Serie A in field tilt and penalty box touches, so they really should be able to create a lot of chances against this Celtic defense.
Celtic Preview
Under Brendan Rogers, Celtic have dominated the Scottish Premier League for the last few years and have put up outstanding underlying numbers, averaging well over two expected goals per 90 minutes. They have been forced to play more direct in the Champions League, which hasn’t really been that effective overall, but against Dortmund they finally started to figure out how to attack these types of aggressive pressing teams with balls over the top.
Against Dortmund, Celtic may have lost the match 7-1, but they created 2.6 expected goals off of only nine shots. Even if Celtic decide to build out of the back, I really think they can have some success because Brendan Rogers is very versatile with his tactics. It is typically a 4-1 base for Celtic with the forwards constantly dropping in between the lines to receive the ball.
When Celtic are out of possession, they are very aggressive with their pressing. They will often press opponents high up the pitch in a man to man fashion and what typically happens against elite teams is they will play more direct they are not great at winning 1 v 1 duels, which means they get opened up with regularity.
Atalanta vs. Celtic Prediction
Atalanta are going to have big advantages in wide areas. Celtic's defensive structure is usually very compact to avoid getting overloaded in the center of the pitch, which means that their fullbacks are constantly in 1 v 1 situations against the opposing wingers. There aren't really any teams other than Rangers in the Scottish Premier League that can take advantage of their fullbacks, so when they get to the Champions League, teams are constantly beating them out wide. Look for Ademola Lookman to have a big match.
While Atalanta have improved defensively over their last three matches, they are going to potentially be down a lot of defenders in this match. Odilon Kossounou and Giorgio Scalvini, who are their best two center backs, are out, and Sead Kolasinac is also questionable.
Celtic may concede a ton of goals in this game, but their offense proved against Dortmund that they are capable of playing direct and creating a lot of high quality chances against aggressive out of possession teams.
This one should be very back and forth, so I like the value on both teams to score.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-155 via DraftKings)
