Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen Updated Odds
| Borussia Monchengladbach | +148 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | +155 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125/-155) |
| Time: | Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FS2 |
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A top of the table clash takes place at Borussia Park on Saturday as Leverkusen pays a visit to Gladbach. Both teams come into the game after big road wins in their first game after the break.
Gladbach currently sits in third place, two points ahead of Leverkusen, who sit in fifth place, so three points would be huge for either team in securing a Champions League spot for next season.
Borussia Monchengladbach
Gladbach come into the game after a dominant 3-1 victory at Frankfurt. Die Fohlen scored two goals in the first 10 minutes and cruised for the rest of the game. The expected goals report showed that Die Fohlen were deserving of the 3-1 victory against a decent Frankfurt team.
Gladbach have been really solid at Borussia Park this season accumulating 29 points in 13 matches, which is tied for second-best in the Bundesliga. Outside of losses to Dortmund and RB Leipzig, Gladbach has been dominant at home this season and sport a +15.4 expected goal differential to prove it.
Gladbach will lineup in a 4-2-3-1 formation which has been their bread-and-butter in 2019-20. Die Fohlen has a +11.40 xG differential when they deploy the 4-2-3-1 and their attacking trio of Alessane Plea, Breel Embolo and Marcus Thuram provide a ton of pace to get behind the defense and will undoubtedly be a problem for the Leverkusen defense.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen beat up on relegation-fodder Werder Bremen on Monday afternoon, securing a 4-1 win away from home. Die Werkself currently sit in fifth place and are a dynamic team with tons of talent. They are led by their 20-year-old wunderkind Kai Havertz, who put on a show versus Werder Bremen, scoring the opening two goals for Leverkusen. Havertz was on fire before the break with five goals and five assists in eight games and looks to have continued that hot form.
Leverkusen have had a lot of interesting results this season. They defeated Bayern Munich away from home, but they've also lost to Hertha Berlin at home. On paper their away form has been really good this season earning 25 points in 13 games. However, Die Werkself's +6 goal differential in away games is deceiving as their expected goal differential on the road is -1.55, meaning they've had a little luck along the way.
Previous Meeting
Gladbach won the previous fixture, 2-1, back in November at BayArena. The expected goals report shows the game should have been closer to a draw. Leverkusen held 61.3% of the possession and out shot Gladbach, 25 to 10.
Another note from this game is two of Gladbach's attacking trio did not play in this game, so adding Embolo and Plea to the attack will be a problem for the Leverkusen defense.
Analysis
Gladbach are the best team in Germany at scoring goals inside the 6-yard box. They boast a 0.57 xGF inside the 6-yard box per game and in their last meeting versus Leverkusen they scored twice inside that distance. Look for Die Fohlen to cross the ball into the 6-yard box all game long versus Leverkusen.
Based on my model I have expected goals as:
- Gladbach: 2.17 xG
- Leverkusen: 1.50 xG
Based on those numbers I think the marketing is underestimating Borussia Monchengladbach. I also think we will see a high-scoring affair as well so I am backing Gladbach to win and the Over of 3.5 goals at +125.
Picks: Gladbach +133 | Over 3.5 (+125)
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