After a painful Champions League defeat midweek, Manchester City must focus on a crucial stretch of games in the Premier League. They will face the other members of the top six, as well as Tottenham, a team that beat them twice to fuel the Citizens' early crisis this season.
The first obstacle, however, will be fourth-place Chelsea, the current holder of the last spot in next year's Champions League. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
Here is my Manchester City vs. Chelsea prediction and Premier League odds for Saturday's match.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Pick, EPL Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -130 | 3.5 100o / -130u | +230 |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -105 | 3.5 100o / -130u | +105 |
- Manchester City vs. Chelsea moneyline odds: Manchester City +105, Draw +300, Chelsea +230
- Manchester City vs. Chelsea over/under: 3.5 Goals (Over +100, Under -130)
- Manchester City vs. Chelsea pick: Over 3.5 goals
I am backing Over 3.5 goals in the Manchester City vs. Chelsea match.
Manchester City Prediction
At first glance, the worst part of Man City's season is behind them after a 13-game stretch where they just won one game in all competitions and even lost five straight. Now, things look different. With three wins and two draws in their past five league games, manager Pep Guardiola should steer the ship back to their minimal goal: a top-four finish.
But looking at their upcoming Premier League fixtures makes you wonder if the worst is truly behind them. Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest are their next opponents, a true murderers' row that could finally sink them into mediocrity if they don't snap back.
First, the good news: Manchester City has an 11-game unbeaten streak against Chelsea in all competitions — reduced to seven if we only count Premier League matchups. At home, they are still one of the best teams in England, with a 6-2-2 record this season.
Phil Foden, last year's PL player of the season, has shown signs of recovering his form, with five goals in the last three league matches that make him now the second-best goalscorer for City (6), surpassing defender Josko Gvardiol (4) and trailing only Erling Haaland (17), who has also improved lately. The offense, in general, erupted again, including 6-0 and 8-0 thumpings to Ipswich Town (PL) and Salford City (FA Cup).
The issue is who the Citizens did this to. None of their latest foes were ranked in the top 10. Even worse, they tend to lose advantages. City scored first in their past five league matches but twice surrendered the lead to end up tying, even after winning 2-0 against Brentford until the 81st minute. On Wednesday, it happened again. PSG came back from 0-2 to beat them 4-2.
City needs to stop the bleeding on defense to have a shot at competing again at the highest level.
Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea holds the desired spot, had more rest after playing on Monday and is one of the best road teams in the league. Their record away from Stamford Bridge (6-3-2) is even better than at home (5-4-2). Cole Palmer is enjoying another great season, with 14 goals and six assists, and returns to Manchester to remind Guardiola and his former teammates what a mistake they made by letting him go.
However, it's not that simple for them either. With their victory on Monday against Wolverhampton, the Blues snapped a five-game winless streak (three draws, two losses), so they are actually the struggling side today, even more so when we look at their head-to-head history and find that Chelsea has not been able to keep a clean sheet in the past 12 matchups in all competitions and has not defeated City in their last seven league contests. And despite their brilliant road record, Chelsea's last three away games have ended in two draws and a loss.
Enzo Fernández remains doubtful, and the Blues need him to return to the lineup since Romeo Lavia, another injured midfielder, is still out.
Chelsea has a two-point advantage (40 to 38) in the standings. Will they play to hold onto their fourth place or will they go for it against a weaker City defense? They have the youth and the speed to try it.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea Prediction
With City surrendering leads and Chelsea struggling to keep clean sheets against them, the total for this game becomes tempting, up to the point where the line has moved to 3.5 goals. Other ingredients are there: Haaland and Palmer are chasing top goalscorer Mohamed Salah (18).
Considering the Premier League goals per game average this season is 3.02 and the compelling needs on both sides, if a game asks for a scoring showdown, it's this one.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea Pick: Over 3.5 goals
