Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund meet once again in a huge Champions League clash at the Santiago Bernabéu.
It's been an interesting start to the season for Real Madrid, who came into it as the new Galaticos, but so far haven't really looked the part. They've drawn three different matches in La Liga and trail Barcelona in the table by three points. They even lost their second Champions League match on the road at Lille, which now means they better kick things into high gear for the remainder of the league phase if they want to finish inside the top eight.
Dortmund are at the top of the Champions League table after two match weeks, but it's not going to last long. They haven't been tested against elite competition and they've honestly been struggling against the teams they have faced. They were pretty good in the first half of that Champions League final against Real Madrid, but repeating that under a new manager on the road is another thing.
Let's dive into my Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction in the Champions League.
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -215 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -215 |
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +150 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +500 |
- Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund moneyline odds: Real Madrid -215, Borussia Dortmund +500, Draw +400
- Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund pick: Real Madrid -1.5
I am backing Real Madrid -1.5 in Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid.
Real Madrid Preview
Real Madrid haven't been playing at the elite level that we all expected them to be at, but this is a really good match for them to flex their muscles.
The underlying numbers offensively have not been good in Spain. They have benefitted from five penalties, but so far they are only averaging 1.42 npxG per 90 minutes. That is because even though they have Kylian Mbappe, teams are sitting incredibly deep and compact on them and Real Madrid have no way to play through or any consistent aerial threats in the box. To be honest, they are a much better team when they are able concede possession to their opponent and play in transition, which is what they are going to be able to do in this game.
Real Madrid are an incredibly dangerous team, not because they have some revolutionary tactics, but because they possess more individual quality that any team in the world. Carlo Ancelotti is the perfect manager for this type of team because he sets them up perfectly to take advantage of that individual quality.
They are incredibly adaptive to the opponent that they are facing and in the Champions League final they decided to play very direct with a lot of long balls up to Jude Bellingham, who would often win the header and allow Vinicus Jr. and Rodrygo to win second balls and get into 1 v 1 situations against Dortmund's defenders.
Borussia Dortmund Preview
Dortmund are trying to become a team that is able to control matches under Nuri Sahin, but so far their build up really hasn’t been that good. They are using a lot of different build up formations, but the biggest problem they run into is when teams win the ball off of them, they have too many guys committed forward, so teams have been able to just run at them in transition over and over again. In the Bundesliga, Dortmund are conceding 1.47 xG per 90 minutes. Mind you they have not faced Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig or Leverkusen yet. The best team they have faced was Stuttgart, who put five goals past them.
When Dortmund don’t have the ball they are trying to press high in a man to man fashion, but it’s been pretty ineffective. Stuttgart were consistently baiting them into pressing and were making quick line breaking passes right through Dortmund’s defense. Sahin also wants them to play a high defensive line, which is a death sentence facing Real Madrid with how good Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo are at making runs off the back line.
The reason Dortmund were so effective early in that Champions League final is because they were either consistently finding space in between Real Madrid's two defense lines with Julian Brandt and Jadon Sancho doing a fantastic job at creating chances and winning second balls. They also started dropping Emre Can into the defensive line to give them a +1 against Real Madrid through the first and second phase. However, as the match went along and Real Madrid stopped pressing and sat deeper, it became harder and harder for Dortmund to find space in the final third and create any sort of high quality chance.
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Real Madrid have already faced a Bundesliga team in this competition, beating Vfb Stuttgart 3-1 after rebounding from an early onslaught. That is the same Vfb Stuttgart team that absolutely hammered Dortmund 5-1 and is the best team that Dortmund have seen so far this season.
The tactical battle will be interesting in this match. In that Champions League final Real Madrid tried to press Dortmund's build up early on, which forced them into a lot of direct long balls up to the striker. However, Real Madrid are not a good pressing team and as the match went along Dortmund made adjustments and were constantly getting overloads through the first couple of phases of build up.
I have a hard time seeing Real Madrid coming out and pressing Dortmund again after seeing how many lower tier sides have had success sitting in a mid block, winning the ball and breaking with numbers in transition against Dortmund's high line.
With Real Madrid being at full strength and at home, I have a hard time seeing how Dortmund give them similar troubles this time around given how poor Dortmund have looked against good competition.
Pick: Real Madrid -1.5 (+115 via bet365)
How to Watch Champions League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 22 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Paramount+ |
